F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                         Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 28th February, 2007  

SUBJECT: PRESENTATION IN THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 02.03.2007

Presentations in the meeting

Rainfall & Temperature (As reported by India Meteorological Department, (IMD)

Rainfall during the week ending on  28^th February, 2007

·        Light to moderate widespread rain / snowfall  occurred over Western Himalayan religion on 22^nd , 27^th &  28^th Feb, 07 with isolated heavy falls on 28^th February, 07.

·        Light to moderate  rain / thundershowers occurred over Plains  of Northwest India and Rajasthan on 26^th – 28^th Feb, 07.

·        Rain / thundershowers occurred at a few places over West Madhya Pradesh on 25^th Feb, 07 and isolated on 24^th & 26^th  Feb, 07.

·        Light rain / thundershowers also occurred over East Uttar Pradesh on 25^th & 26^th Feb, 07 over Bihar and Jharkhand on 26^th Feb and over West Bengal & Sikkim and Northeastern States on 26^th & 27^th  February, 07.

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers occurred over Tamil Nadu & Kerala on 27^th Feb, 07.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country during the week.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (22^nd -   28^th February, 07 ) was above  normal by 13% (Actual 6.9 mm,  Normal 6.1 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 04 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 05 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  January  to  28^th February, 2007 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Winter season was below normal by 22% (Actual 34.3 mm,  Normal 43.8 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 14 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

        Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st January to  28^th February, 07  in four regions of the country [2]

              Source: IMD

 Minimum Temperature

·        The minimum temperature was 3^oC- 5^oC above normal over Plains of Northwest India, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh during first half of the week and 2^oC- 3^oC above normal during 2^nd half of the week.

·        It was near normal over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West  Bengal & Sikkim from 22^nd to 24^th Feb, 07  and  3^oC- 4^oC above normal on remaining days of the week.  It was 3^oC- 4^oC above normal over Northeastern States on many days of the week.

·        It was 3^oC- 5^oC below normal over South Peninsula on most days of the week.  

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (02^nd  - 8^th March 2007), by IMD & NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 07^th March, 2007

·        Fairly widespread precipitation over Western Himalayan region, Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining Central India during first two days of the week and over Northeastern States and adjoining East India during 02^nd – 05^th March, 07.

·        Light rain / thundershowers also likely over extreme South Peninsula during 02^nd – 04^th March, 07.

·        Fall in night temperature and rise in day temperature by 4^oC- 6^oC over plains of Northwest India during the week.

Zone-wise Weather Forecast:

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread snowfall / rain is likely over J&K, H.P. and Uttaranchal during 03^rd – 05^th March, 07.  

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·         Scattered to fairly widespread thundershowers / rain is likely over West Bengal, Orissa and NE States during 03^rd & 04^th March, 07 and reduce thereafter.   Scattered thundershowers are likely over Bihar and Jharkhand on 3^rd March, 07.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Mainly clear weather is likely over the region.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Mainly clear weather is likely over the region.  Isolated rain / thundershowers may occur over Coastal Karantaka and Kerala on  03^rd March, 07. 

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Mainly dry weather is likely over the region.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 01.03.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 65.38  BCM from 68.44 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 1.91 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 14.35 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

                        Source: CWC

·        There were 65 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 6 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

·        There were three reservoirs namely Gumti (TRP), Vaigai (TN) and Vanivilas Sagar (Karnataka) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

                           Source: Central Water Commission

Ground Water Scenario of India during Post-Monsoon period - Nov, 2006

Based on the water level monitored by Central Ground Water Board, the ground water scenario of the country as on November, 2006 is as follows:

·           The depth of water level for the Post-Monsoon period (Nov) 2006 in sub-Himalayan area, North of river Ganges , ranges from 2-5 meters below ground level (m.bgl).

·           In the North-eastern parts of the country, falling in the Brahmaputra valley, water level generally ranges from 2-5 m.bgl.

·           In major parts of Northwestern States, falling in Indus basin, depth of water level generally ranges from 10-20m.bgl. 

·            In the Western parts of the country, covering States of Gujarat , Rajasthan, deeper water level is recorded in the range of 10-20m. bgl.

·           In the West Coast, water level is generally less than 5m.bgl. but western parts of Maharashtra recorded water level of less than 2m bgl.  In the East Coast i.e. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa, shallow water level of less than 2m. bgl.,  have been recorded. 

·           In Eastern States falling in Ganga basin water level, in general, ranges from 2-5m. bgl.  

·           In Central India , water level generally varies between 2-5m. bgl., except in isolated pockets where water level is more than 5m. bgl. 

·           The Peninsular India including Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have generally recorded a water level in the range of 5-10m. bgl.

Comparison with Decadal Mean

·           More than 20% of the monitoring wells in the States of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chandigarh , Punjab and Haryana, show a decline in water level of more than 2m. as compared with decadal mean (1996-2005).

·           Majority of the well in the States of Tamil Nadu and Bihar show a rise in water level when compared with Decadal mean.

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 25^th February, 2007

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

                          Source: Fertilizer Division  

Pest & Diseases:  

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

    Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 17.02.2007 declined by 0.58 percentage points to 6.05% from the previous week’s level of 6.63%.  The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  fell by 0.33%  and for the foodgrains by 0.05 % over the week on account of decline in WPI for Rice by (0.11%), Jowar by (0.53%), Bajra by (1.62%), Gram (3.48

%), Moong by (0.58%), Urad by (0.29%) and Sugar by (0.98%).   The increase in WPI of Wheat by (0.61%), Maize (0.82%), Barley by (0.92%), Ragi by (0.36%), and Arhar by (1.85%) was observed.  The inflation rate was 4.13% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,  Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Milk and Brinjal remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Groundnut oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.1%), %), Tea (Loose) (50 paise per kg, 0.5%)  and Potato (50 paise per, 7.1%).     Fall in price was noted in Gram dal ( Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.8%), Tur dal (50 paise per kg, 1.4%), Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.3%) Onion (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 16.7%),  Tomato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.1%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 6.3%)

As compared to the last year, increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Atta (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%),Gram Dal (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 29.6%), Tur dal (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 4.4%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 6.00 per ltr., 12.0%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 11.00 per lt, 12.9%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs. 2.00 per lt, 12.5%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.50 per kg, 5.3%), Onion (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 87.5%), Tomato (Rs.3.00 per kg, 30.0%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Rs. 4.00 per kg, -18.2%), Potato (50 paise per kg, -6.3%), Brinjal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -13.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -11.8%) was observed.    

        Procurement :  

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 01.03.2007 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.