F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 5^th July, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   03.07.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 03.07.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture.A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  July Rainfall

·        Rainfall in the month of July 2006 for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of its LPA with the model error of ± 9%.

(iii) Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below:

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Progress of Southwest Monsoon

·        The Southwest monsoon has covered the remaining parts of Chhattisgarh and Gujarat, entire East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, most parts of Uttaranchal, some parts of South Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Northern parts of Punjab and Haryana during the week.  The Northern limit of monsoon as on 30^th June, 06 passed through Udaipur, Gwaloir, Barielly, Dehradun, Ambala and Amritsar. 

Rainfall during the week ending on  25^th June, 2006[1]

·        Fairly widespread rains accompanied with scattered heavy to very heavy falls continued along the West Coast during the entire week.

·        Fairly widespread  rains also occurred over the Western Himalayas, Uttar Pradesh, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and the Northeastern States during first half of the week.   This activity has reduced during the second half of the week.

·        Scattered rains  were also realized over the remaining parts of the country on many days during the week.

·        Due to formation of a low pressure area over North Bay of Bengal in the second half of the week which intensified into a deep depression 2^nd July 2006, the rainfall activity over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and North Coastal Andhra Pradesh increased towards the end of the week.  Simultaneously, there was an increase in the rainfall activity over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and South Gujarat.   Heavy to very heavy rains (with isolated extremely heavy falls) occurred over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Orissa during last 2 days of the week. 

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (22^nd  June to 28^th June, 2006) was  below normal by 15% (Actual 43.5 mm, Normal 51.3  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 21 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 15 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  28^th June, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 21% (Actual 116.2  mm,  Normal 146.2 mm).   Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 23 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  28^th June, 2006

OUTLOOK FOR NEXT ONE WEEK

·        A deep depression lies over Orissa close to Cuttack.  The system is likely to move West-Northwestwards across central India during 1^st half of the week.   Under its influence widespread rains with scattered heavy to very falls are likely over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka, entire Maharashtra, South Gujarat and East Rajasthan.  As the system moves Westwards during next three days, the ongoing rainfall over Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai), Madhya Maharashtra and South Gujarat may increase further where isolated extremely heavy rains may also occur during next 3-4 days.  However, the rainfall activity over Orissa, Chhattisgarh and north Coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to decrease after 48 hours. 

·        Fairly widespread rains may continue along Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.  Other regions of the country may experience rainfall at a few places except Punjab, Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh where only isolated rains are likely during 1^st half of the week.  Rainfall activity is likely to increase over these areas in the 2^nd half of the week.

 Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (03^rd July  -  9^th July, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Isolated rainfall is likely over J&K, H.P., Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West UP during next three days.   Rainfall activity may increase over West Uttar Pradesh subsequentaly. 

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Scattered to fairly widespread rains / thundershowers with isolated heavy rains are likely over Sub Himalayan West Bengal and NE States.
• Fairly widespread to widespread with isolated heavy rains are expected over Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand during next two days and thereafter over East Uttar Pradesh. 

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Ongoing rainfall activities over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and East MP are likely to enhance after 24-36 hours.  Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains during next 3-4 days.  Subsequently, West MP is likely to receive fairly widespread rains.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during next 4-5 days.

·        Tamil Nadu  is likely to receive scattered rainfall. 

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Fairly wide spread with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan & Goa. Madhya Maharshtra, Marathwada, Gujarat, East Rajasthan during next 4-5 days.   Isolated thundershowers is expected over West Rajasthan.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Heavy to very rainfall is likely at a few places over Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Orissa.  Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over Coastal Orissa, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Gujarat, Konkan & Goa  and Chhattisgarh.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        In NW India, paddy transplantation under irrigated condition is advised in view of rainfall forecast.  Sowing of maize, millet and soyabean be completed by end of this week.  Also, advised for transplanting the nursery plants of vegetables like brinjal, tomato, cauliflower etc. during this week.

·        In Eastern region farmers are advised to go for paddy transplantation in the light of rainfall forecast.  In Central India sowing operation can be taken for maize, soyabean, groundnut and vegetables.  In Chhattisgarh farmers are advised to take up short duration paddy varieties instead of long duration varieties.  Broadcasting of upland paddy should be done in light of rainfall forecast.

·        Rainfall forecast will help in taking up sowing of pearl millet, maize, sorghum, greengram, cowpea and cucurbits in Western part of the country.  Withhold irrigation in cotton crop in light of rainfall forecast.  In Andhra Pradesh farmers are advised to take up sowing of rainfed crops by taking advantage of rainfall.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 30.06.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 29.74 BCM from 28.61 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 12.94 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 7.67 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There are 57 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 7 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There are seven reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and three reservoirs having nil/negative live storage namely, Sriram Sagar – AP, Gandhi Sagar – Madhya Pradesh and Rengali– Orissa.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006-07)

Summary of progress of Kharif crop (area coverage) 

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture

Area sown, Production and Average Wholesale Prices of Horticulture Commodities during the week ending 09.06.2006 in Delhi Market 

P:-  Market Price in Rs. / (Qtl.).    Source:NHB

A:- Arrival in Tonnes.
Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 17.06.2006 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 5.44% from the previous week’s level of 5.24% on account of increase in almost all commodities over the week mainly Rice (0.2%), Wheat (0.4%), Barley (1.3%), Ragi (0.6%), Jowar (0.1%), Urad (3.9%) and Gram (1.2%).  The inflation rate was 5.38% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of essential commodities at Delhi

                                                                                                         (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week,  rise in prices was noted in Tur dal (50 paise per kg, 1.5%) and Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 12.5%).   Fall in prices was noted in Gram dal (50 paise per kg, -1.6%) Potato (Re.1.00 per kg, -9.1%) and Tomato (Rs. 5.00 per kg, -15.6%)  during the same period.  Prices of Tomato have indicated a declining trend since last week from Rs. 32.00 per kg to Rs. 27.00 per kg.  

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Tomato (Rs. 20.00 per kg, 285.7%), Gram Dal (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 34.8%), Onion (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 28.6%), Brinjal (Rs.2.50 per kg, 16.7%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Sugar (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 15.8%), Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%) and Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%).

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card: 

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Fertilizer Position:

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 15^th June, 2006 

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 03.07.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  03.07.2006.

Shri S.M. Desalphene                    Addl. Secretary                               Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr. N.B. Singh                           Agri. Commissioner

2.         Shri A. K. Bhatia                        Adviser (Hort.)

3.         Dr. H.C. Gautam                        Addl. Commissioner

4.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

5.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          Dy. Commissioner (Seeds)

6.         Smt. A. Lakshman                     Director (Extn)

7.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

8.         Dr. T. Ram                                Asstt. Commissioner (Plant Protection)

9.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer

I.M.D.

10.        Shri S.C. Bhan                          Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

11.        Dr. Ranjeet  Singh                      P.S.O.

C.W.C

12.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

13.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

DEPTT. OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS

14.        Smt. Sunita Yadav                     Dy. Director

I.C.A.R.

15.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

16.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

17.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

P.I.B.

18.        Shri A.M. Thomas                      S. M&C. Officer

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

19.        Shri A.K. Neog                          E.S.A.

20.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

21.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director

N.C.F.C.

22.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

23.      Shri. P.S. Meena                         Dy. E.A.

24.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Food & PD, and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.