SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 05.01.2007.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 05th January 2007 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.)

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer, DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (AKB), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB)

I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI)

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

Director (IMD),

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (PPM)/ PPS

to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 05.01.2007

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 05.01.2007 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.L. Bhatt, JS (Crops & TMOP), DAC. The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on 03^rd January, 2007

Withdrawal of North-East Monsoon

· The Northeast monsoon rains have ceased over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining parts of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka on 28^th December, 06.

Rainfall

· Isolated rain / thundershowers occurred over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during many days of the week.

· Scattered rain / thundershowers occurred over Nicobar Islands on 29^th Dec, 06.

· Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country during the week.

Fog

· Fog conditions prevailed over many parts of Indo-Gangetic plains during the week. However, dense fog occurred over the Western Parts of the region during 31^st December, 06 and 1^st January, 07 and over Eastern parts of the region during 2^nd and 3^rd January, 07.

· All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (28^th December, 06 – 03^rd January, 07 ) was below normal by 93% (Actual 0.3 mm Normal 4.2 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø Excess rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø Normal rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø Scanty rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø No rain in 32 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st October to 31^st December, 2006 )

· All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Post-Monsoon season was below normal by 21% (Actual 99.3 mm Normal 125.9 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø Excess rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø Normal rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø Deficient rainfall in 14 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø Scanty rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall from 1^st October to 31^st December, 06 in four regions of the country [2]

Region	Actual (in mm)	Normal (in mm)	Deviation (%)	Category
North-West India	67.3	66.7	1	Normal
Central India	36.9	79.9	-54	Deficient
South Peninsular India	261.5	268.4	-3	Normal
North-East India	92.9	161.5	-42	Deficient
Country as a whole	99.3	125.9	-21	Deficient

Temperature:

Cold Wave

· Cold wave conditions prevailed over parts of Punjab and isolated pockets of Haryana and North Rajasthan on 29^th –31^st Dec, 06 and on 3^rd January, 07. The minimum temperature was below normal by 2^oC-3^oC over many places in the remaining parts of the plains of Northwest India during many days of the week.

· Cold day conditions prevailed over some parts in the plains of Northwest India on 1^st and 2^nd January, 07.

Minimum Temperature:

· The minimum temperature was below normal by 2^oC-4^oC over many parts of South Peninsula during the week.

· It was above normal by 2^oC-4^oC over West India outside North Rajasthan during many days of the week.

· It was above normal by 2^oC - 4^oC over many parts of Central India during 28^th Dec, 06 to 1^st January, 07 and was normal thereafter.

· It was above normal by 2^oC-4^oC over Northeast India during the week except on 3^rd January, 07 when it was normal.

· It was below normal by 2^oC-4^oC over many parts of East India during 30^th December, 06 to 1^st January, 07 and over Jharkhand and Interior Orissa on 3^rd January, 07. It was normal on remaining days of the week.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (05^th - 11^th January, 2007), by IMD and NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 10^th January, 2007

· Isolated rain / thundershower is likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Northeastern States during 8^th – 9^th January, 07.

· Fog conditions and fall in night temperatures are likely over plains of Northwest India during 7^th – 9^th January, 07.

· A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan region from 10^th January, 07.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

Scattered snowfall / rainfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, H.P. and Uttaranchal during 5^th –7^th January, 07.
Isolated light showers may occur over Punjab , Haryana and Delhi during 5^th & 6^th January, 07.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

Mainly dry weather is expected over rest of the region during next 5 days.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

Mainly dry weather is likely over the region during next 5 days.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

Mainly dry weather conditions are expected (except scattered showers) over Andaman & Nicoabr Islands around 8^th January, 07 and isolated showers over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and Kerala during 9^th – 10^th January, 07 .

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the region .
Night temperatures are likely to rise over Rajasthan and Gujarat during 5^th –6^th January, 2007.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 04.01.2007)

· The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country.

· Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 88.11 BCM from 92.32 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 0.46 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 16.32 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

Period	Current Year’s Storage as % of FRL*	Current Year’s storage as % of last year	Current year as a % of 10 years average level
Current Week Last Week	66 69	101 101	123 121
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 66% on 04/01/2006 , 44% on 04/01/2005 and 43% on 04/01/2004 .
* Live storage as % to Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 Billion Cub. Mts.(BCM)

· There were 68 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 3 reservoirs having storage between 50% to 80% and 3 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

· There were 2 reservoirs namely Gumti (TRP) and Harangi (Karnataka) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto December, 2006

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

*Availability /* *Sale* */ Closing Stock*	*Urea*	*DAP*	*MOP*
*Availability during December, 06*	*3698*	*972*	*463*
*Sales during December, 06*	*2774*	*536*	*216*
*Closing Stock as on 31.12.06*	*924*	*436*	*247*
*Requirement for December, 2006*	*3163*	*857*	*342*

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 23.12.2006 increased by 0.05 percentage points to 5.48% from the previous week’s level of 5.43%. The inflation rate for the foodgrains rose by 0.19% , and for the agriculture commodities rose by 0.28% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.17%), Wheat by (0.52%), Bajra by (2.19%), Maize by (1.67%) and Ragi by (0.52%). However, decline was observed in WPI of Jowar by (0.93%), Barley by (0.95%), Gram by (0.60%), Moong by (0.92%), Masur by (0.32%) and Urad by (0.85%). The inflation rate of Sugar fell by (0.50%). The inflation rate was 4.62% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

(Rs. Per Kg.)

Items	Current price 04.01.07	1 week ago 28.12.06	Fortnight ago 21.12.06	1 month ago 04.12.06	1 year ago 04.01.06	% Variation 04.01.07 over 04.01.06
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Rice	15.00	14.50	14.50	14.50	13.00	15.4
Wheat	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	10.00	20.0
Atta	13.00	13.00	13.00	13.00	11.00	18.2
Gram Dal	*37.00*	38.00	39.00	40.00	27.00	37.0
Tur Dal	33.00	33.00	33.00	34.00	33.00	Steady
Sugar	19.00	19.00	20.00	20.00	20.00	-5.0
Groundnut Oil	92.00	92.00	92.00	91.00	84.00	9.5
Mustard Oil	58.00	58.00	58.00	58.00	51.00	13.7
Vanaspati	56.00	56.00	56.00	56.00	47.00	19.1
Tea (Loose)	109.50	109.00	109.00	110.00	102.50	6.8
Milk	17.00	17.00	17.00	17.00	15.00	13.3
Potato	6.00	6.00	7.00	9.00	8.00	-25.0
Onion	12.00	11.00	11.00	10.00	9.00	22.2
*Other Commodities*
Tomato	13.00	12.00	11.50	13.00	7.50	73.3
Brinjal	*10.00*	11.00	11.00	11.00	10.50	-4.8
Gourd(Lauki)	*15.00*	17.00	15.00	16.00	17.00	-11.8

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

· Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

· Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Wheat, Atta, Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Milk and Potato remained at the same level as they were last week. Rise in prices was noted in Rice (50 paise per kg, 3.4%), Tea (Loose) (50 paise per kg, 0.5%), Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1% ) and Tomato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%). Fall in prices was noted in Gram dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.6%), Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 11.8%) .

As compared to the last year price of Tur dal remained steady. Increase in prices was noted in Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 20.0%), Atta (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 18.2%),Gram Dal (Rs. 10.00 per kg, 37.0%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 7.00 per ltr., 13.7%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 8.00 per lt, 9.5%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 6.8%), Tomato (Rs.5.50 per kg, 73.3%) and Onion (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 22.2%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, -5.0), Potato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -25.0), Brinjal (50 paise per kg, -4.8) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -11.8%) was observed.

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 05.01.2007 (lakh tonnes)

State	Total procurement in marketing season 2005-06 (Oct. – Sept.)	Progressive Procurement as on 05.01.2007
State		In Marketing season 2006-2007	In Marketing season 2005-2006
Andhra Pradesh	49.72	12.43	8.58
Chhattisgarh	32.65	14.96	13.87
Haryana	20.54	16.97	19.42
Kerala	0.94	0.51	0.41
Maharashtra	1.94	0.55	0.53
Orissa	17.85	5.02	2.07
Punjab	88.55	73.35	83.25
Tamil Nadu	9.26	2.41	-
Uttar Pradesh	31.51	9.98	11.29
Uttaranchal	3.36	0.57	1.04
West Bengal	12.75	0.36	0.67
All-India	276.56	137.85	142.00

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 05.01.2007.

Shri S.L. Bhatt Joint Secretary Chairman

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1. Shri J.P. Mishra Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

2. Shri S. Selvaraj DC (Seeds)

3. Dr. S.S. Tomar Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

4. Shri C.S. Mathad Asstt. Editor (Extn.)

5. Shri Mitar Sain Stat. Officer (INM)

6. Shri Rakesh Agrawal Asstt. Director

I.M.D.

7. Shri M. Mohapatra Director

DEPTT. OF ERARTH & SCIENCE

8. Shri J.V. Singh Scientist ‘D’

C.W.C.

9. Shri S.K. Sinha A.D.

P.P.Q & S

10. Shri V.K. Yadava Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

11. Dr. A.K. Gogoi ADG (Agro)

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

12. Shri S.M. Gputa US (Policy)

DEPTT. OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS

13. Smt. Indrani Kaushal Dy. Director

14. Smt. Sunita Yadava Dy. Director

DTE. OF ECO. & STAT.

15. Shri D.K. Tiwari Dy. Director

N.C.F.C.

16. Smt. Sudha Keshari Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Fertilizer, Central Ground Water Board, P.I.B. and RBI did not attend the meeting. It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.

¹ Excess: +20% or more; Normal : +19% to -19%; Deficient: -20% to -59%; Scanty: -60% to -99%; No Rain: -100%.

² North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi , Punjab , Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir .

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep .

North-east India - Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.