F.NO. 3-1/2005-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 09^th  June, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   05.06.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 05.06.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. S.M. Jharwal, Pr. Adviser, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture.A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in   

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.

·        Estimates also suggest that the probability for the 2006 South-West monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole  to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) is only    22%. 

Progress of Southwest Monsoon

·        Southwest monsoon further advanced into North Konkan (about 10 days ahead of normal in Mumbai), parts of South Madhya Maharashtra, remaining parts of Rayalseema and some parts of North Interior Karnataka on 31^st May, 2006.   It covered the remaining parts of North Konkan on 1^st June 2006 and parts of South Gujarat on 2^nd June, 2006.  The Northern Limit of Monsoon on 2^nd June, 2006, passed through Porbandar, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Baroda, Pune, Sholapur, Kurnool, Ongole into the Bay of Bengal and then to Gangtok through Bangladesh.

Rainfall during the week ending on  04^th June, 2006[1]

·        Fairly widespread rains accompanied with heavy to very heavy rainfall continued over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka throughout the week   This activity extended Northwards upto South Konkan & Goa on 30^th May, 2006, North Konkan and South Madhya Maharashtra on 31^st May, 2006 and upto South Gujarat on 2^nd June, 2006.   The activity however, decreased significantly from Gujarat, North Konkan and Kerala by the end of the week. 

·        The Northeastern States and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim also continued to receive fairly widespread rain accompanied with isolated heavy to very heavy falls throughout the week.

·        The other regions of the country also received isolated to scattered rains on many days during the week.  The rainfall activity, however, was fairly widespread over Northwest, central and Eastern parts of the country on 2-3 days in the second half of the week.

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (25^th May – 31^st May, 2006) was  above normal by 105% (Actual 34.4 mm, Normal 16.8  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 26 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country. 

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st March  to  31^st May, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Pre-Monsoon season was above normal by 4% (Actual 139.9  mm,  Normal 134.6 mm).   Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 28 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]

 Pre-Monsoon Season-2006 (March - May) 1^st March to  31^st May, 2006

FORECAST BY IMD (0830 HRS. IST OF  05^th June 2006, TO 0830 HRS. IST OF  08^th JUNE, 2006)

·        Likely increase in rainfall activity and consequent advance of monsoon over remaining parts of West Bengal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and some parts of Orissa, Jharkhand and Bihar.

·        Rain / thundershowers are likely at many places over Northeastern States, West Bengal & Sikkim and Coastal Orissa.

·        Scattered rainfall activity over Bihar, Jharkhand, Interior Orissa and along the West Coast.

·        The rainfall activity over Eastern parts of the country is likely to increase during this period.

·        Subdued rainfall activity is likely to continue over Interior Peninsula, Central & Northwest India.

·        Day temperatures are likely to increase over Northwest & adjoining central India.

Medium Range Weather Forecast for the week by NCMRWF (05^th June -           11^th June, 2006)

MONSOON WATCH:

·        The northern limit of monsoon still continues to pass through 22°N/60.0°E, 22°N/68°E, Porbandar, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Baroda, Pune, Sholapur, Kurnool, Ongole, 17° N/85.0°E, 20°N/89° E and Gangtok.

·        Satellite and conventional observations have shown considerable decrease in rainfall activity over west coast during past 24 Hrs.  Model predictions further indicate for weakening of monsoon current over Arabian Sea.

·        A large scale cloud cluster lies over NW Bay of Bengal. It is likely to persist for next 48 Hrs. Under its influence Orissa and West Bengal are expected to have fairly wide spread to wide spread rains with isolated heavy rainfall.

·        Majority of models indicate of overall weakening of the monsoon system over the country beginning from 8th June.

Weather  Systems:

·        Yesterday, i.e. on 4^th June 2006, fairly widespread rainfall had occurred over Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, south Madhya Maharashtra, coastal Orissa and East Uttar Pradesh.  Scattered rainfall has occurred over Jammu & Kashmir, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Taminadu and South Interior Karnataka, during 24 Hrs.

·        The day temperature over NW and central  India are likely to further rise by about 4-5 degree C   during the week. Parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, M.P. and Maharashtra may experience above normal temperatures during 6-9 June06.  Eastern states viz. Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Assa, and NE states  are likely to experience fall in day temperatures by about 3 degree C during next 3-4 days.

·        The chief amounts of rainfall (in cm) recorded at 08.30 hrs IST of 4 June, over different parts of the country were: Bhubaneswar-13, Lucknow, Alibag-8 each, Kozhikode-6, Harnai, Shiralli-5 each, Behraich, Cuttack-4 each, Karwar, Mukteshwar and Mumbai-3 each, Satara, Gaya, Srinagar, and Satna-1 each.

·        At present a Western Disturbance lies over J&K and adjoining area. It is likely to cause scattered rains / snowfall over J&K, H.P. and Uttranchal during next 24-48 Hrs.

·        Another Western Disturbance is likely to affect hilly regions of NW India during 9^th – 11^th  June 06.

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for next week:

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        J&K, H.P. and Uttranchal are likely to receive scattered rainfall/snowfall during next 2 days and thereafter during 9^th –11^th  June, 06.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread rains / thundershowers are likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal and NE States.

·        Isolated to scattered  rains/ thundershowers are likely over east U.P. during next 24 Hrs.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Entire region is likely to experience mainly dry weather except scattered rainfall activity over Chattisgarh during next 48 hours.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Fairly widespread with isolated heavy falls are likely over coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar islands. Scattered rains are likely over Kerala, Interior Karnataka and south coastal AP. Isolated rains are expected over rest areas of the region during next 3-4 days.

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        The region is likely to experience mainly dry weather conditions except over Madhya Maharashtra where scattered rains are likely during next 48 Hrs.
 

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 02.06.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having their Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 29.76 BCM from 30.09 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 13.14 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 11.14 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There are 52 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 7 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 5 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There are four reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and eight reservoirs having nil/negative live storage namely, Sriram Sagar – AP, Almatti, Kabini– Karnataka, Gandhi Sagar – Madhya Pradesh, Sabarmati – Gujarat, Mula & Bhima (Ujjani) – Maharashtra and Tilaiya – Jharkhand.

Crop Condition (Rabi 2005-06)

Summary of progress of Rabi crop (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture 

Area sown, Production and Average Wholesale Prices of    Horticulture Commodities during the week ending  02.06.2006 in Delhi Market 

P:-  Market Price in Rs. / (Qtl.).

A:- Arrival in Tonnes.
Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 20.05.2006 increased by 0.42 percentage points to 4.74% from the previous week’s level of 4.32% on account of increase in almost all commodities over the week mainly Wheat (0.4%), Bajra (3.4%), Barley (1.3%), Jowar (0.5%), Gram (0.9%) and Arhar (0.5%). The inflation rate was 5.38% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of essential commodities at Delhi

                                                                                                         (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week,  rise in prices was noted in Tea (Loose)  (Rs. 2.00 per kg ), Potato, Brinjal (Re. 1.00  per kg each) and Tomato (Rs. 1.50 per kg).  Fall in prices was noted in Vanaspati and Gourd (Lauki) ( Re. 1.00 per kg).

As observed at column 6 & 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Tomato (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 42.9%), Brinjal (Rs.5.00 per kg, 36.4%), Potato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 28.6%), Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 20.0%),  Sugar (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 15.8%) Wheat (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 17.6%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg ,15.8%) Rice (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 12.0%) and Gram Dal (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 34.8%). Prices of  some of the  essential   commodities   have  decreased  over   the   last   year :  Mustard oil (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -3.9%) and  Vanaspati (Rs. 1.00 per kg, -2.0%).  

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card: 

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Fertilizer Position: 

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizer Urea, DAP and MOP as on 15^th May, 2006 

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 05.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 05.06.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  05.06.2006.

Dr. S.M. Jharwal                                          Pr. Adviser                           Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S.L. Bhat                            J.S. (Seeds, Crop & TMOP)

2.         Shri A. K. Bhatia                        Adviser (Hort.)

3.         Dr. G.N. Mishra                         Addl. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Dr. H.C. Gautam                        Addl. Commissioner

5.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          Dy. Commissioner (Seeds)

6.         Shri J.P. Mishra                         Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

7.         Dr. Lily Mitra                              Dy. Commissioner (Hort)

8.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner                 

9.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer (INM)

10.        Shri Chennu S. Mathad              Asstt. Editors

I.M.D.

11.        Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

12.        Dr. Akhilesh Gupta                     Director

C.W.C

13.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

14.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

15.        Dr. A. K. Gogoi                          ADG (Agro.)

16.        Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

17.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

P.I.B.

18.        Smt. Kanta                                I.A.

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

19.        Shri V.K. Bhardwaj                     US (Policy)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

20.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

21.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director

N.C.F.C.

22.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

Note: Representatives from Central Ground Water Board, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.