F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 11^th August, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   07.08.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 07.08.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. S.M. Jharwal, Pr. Adviser, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture. A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                                     Asstt. E.A.

                  Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  July Rainfall

·        Rainfall in the month of July 2006 for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of its LPA with the model error of ± 9%.

(iii) Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below:

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Rainfall during the week ending on  06^th August, 2006[1]

·           Under the influence of a low pressure area, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places occurred over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat State,

West Madhya Pradesh and southeast Rajasthan during 1^st half of the week upto 2^nd August 2006, which decreased thereafter  in intensity upto 5^th August, 2006.

·           A fresh low pressure area formed over northwest Bay of Bengal on 1^st August and rapidly intensified into a deep depression on 2^nd August, 06.  It crossed Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Puri on 3^rd August, 06 morning and then moved across south Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Southwest Madhya Pradesh.  Under its influence rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls occurred over Orissa on 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd August, 06.  Enhanced rainfall with very heavy falls at a few places also occurred over south Chhattisgarh, north Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha and Marathwada during 3^rd to  6^th August, 06.  Towards the end of  the week, rainfall activity increased over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Gujarat Region, southwest Madhya Pradesh and south Rajasthan.

·           Scattered rainfall occurred over Northeastern States, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka throughout the week.

·           Scattered rainfall occurred over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during 1^st half of the week, which increased during the 2^nd half of the week with isolated heavy falls.

·           Light to moderate rainfall also occurred over the remaining parts of the country on some days of the week.  Rainfall activity remained subdued over parts of Bihar, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Northwest Rajasthan, Rayalseema, Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry.

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (27^th July – 02^nd August, 2006) was above normal by 26% (Actual 84.2 mm, Normal 66.7  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 22 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in one out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  02^nd August, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 7% (Actual 441.2  Normal 474.8)Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 26 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  02^nd August, 2006

FORECAST (0830 HRS. IST OF 07^TH AUGUST TO 0830 HRS.OF 10^TH AUGUST, 2006)

·        At present a low pressure area lies over West Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan.  Under its influence widespread rainfall activity with scattered very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Gujarat Region and North Konkan.  Scattered heavy falls are also likely over North Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and West Madhya Pradesh.  Widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are also likely over Vidarbha, East Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch and East Rajasthan.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over Northeastern States, Western Himalayan Region and Coastal Karnataka.

·        Scattered rainfall activity likely over Plains of Northwest India, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Telangana and Kerala.  It may be isolated over the rest regions of the country.   Possibility of increase in rainfall activity likely over plains of Northwest India and Uttar Pradesh.

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (07^th August  -  13^th August, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Scattered rainfall is expected over J&K, H.P., Punjab, Uttaranchal, Haryana and West U.P. during next 2-3 days.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Scattered rainfall is likely to continue over Gangetic West Bengal and NE States.
• Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Orissa, Jharkhand during next 2 days.
• East UP and Bihar is likely to receive scattered rainfall.
• Rainfall over Coastal Orissa is likely to enhance around 12^th August, 06 with the expected formation of a low pressure area.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains is likely over Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hrs and reduced thereafter.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread rain  with isolated heavy falls is likely over Karnataka, Telangana and Scattered to fairly widespread over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema.

·        Ongoing rainfall activities over Kerala is likely to enhance during 24-48 hrs. and reduce thereafter.

·        Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu during 3 days. 

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Konkan & Goa Gujarat region during next 48 hrs.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over East Rajasthan during next 24 hrs and over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada during next 2 days.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Marathawada, North Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa and Gujarat Region during next 24-36 hrs.  Isolated heavy to very falls are also likely over West Madhya Pradesh, Southeast Rajasthan and isolated heavy rainfall are likely over Saurashtra & Kutch, South Madhya Maharashtra, Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, North Telangana, Vidarbha and Jammu region during next 24-48 hrs.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        As Central India, Maharashtra and Telangana region received good rainfall, farmers are advised to complete paddy transplantation vigorously and provide adequate drainage in the fields of Oilseeds, Pulse crops, Sugarcane and Cotton.

·        In Cotton growing regions of Central, Western and Southern India, fields lying vacant be used to grow short duration crops like black gram, green gram, soyabean, cowpea, sorghum and pearl millet in place of cotton.

·        In Karnataka it is ideal time for planting of finger millet by selecting varieties: Indaf8, HR911 and CPU28 as intercrop with pigeon pea (8:1).

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 04.08.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 74.43  BCM from 62.23 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 4.99 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 23.69 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There were 65 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 4 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 6 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was only one reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage namely, Gandhi Sagar – MP.  There was no reservoir having negative live storage.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture

Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  28.07.2006)

Source: NHB data
 

Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 22.07.2006 increased by 0.15 percentage points to 4.67% from the previous week’s level of 4.52%. The WPI of foodgrain rose by 0.3% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Wheat by (0.45%), Rice (0.17%), Jowar (0.36%), Bajra (0.18%), Masur (0.88%), Urad (0.66%), Gram (0.64%), Moong (0.45%) and Arhar (0.17%).   But the WPI of  some of the other food items declined: Maize by (0.33%), Barley by (0.28%) and Sugar by (0.23%). The inflation rate was 4.33% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of Essential Commodities at Delhi                          (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week, rise in prices was noted in  Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.9%). Fall in prices was noted in Tea (Loose) (Rs. 2.00 per kg , -1.9%), Tomato (50 paise per kg, -4.%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 1.00 per kg, -6.7%).

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Gram Dal (Rs. 6.00 per kg, 24.0%), Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 16.7%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%).  Prices of some of the essential commodities have decreased over the last year: Tomato (Rs. 4.00 per kg, -25.0%), and Mustard oil  (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -3.8%).

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card:

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Fertilizer Position:

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 31^st July, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 07.08.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 07.08.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  07.08.2006.

Dr. S.M. Jharwal                              Pr. Adviser                           Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S.M. Desalphine                 Addl. Secretary

2.         Shri S. L. Bhat                           JS (Crops, TMOP & Seeds)

3.         Shri A. K. Bhatia                        Adviser (Hort.)

4.         Dr H.C. Gautam `                       Addl. Commissioner

5.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

6.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

7.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

8.         Shri B. J. Bhatacharaya              D.S. (INM)

9.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer

10.        Shri C. S. Mathod                      Asstt. Editor (Extn.)

I.M.D.

11.        Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

12.        Shri J.V.  Singh                         P.S.O.

C.W.C

13.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

14.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

15.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

16.        Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

17.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

18.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

19.        Shri V.K. Bhardwaj                     US (Policy)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

20.        Shri A. K. Neog                         E.S.A.

21.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

N.C.F.C.

22.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

23.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

Note: Representatives from , Deptt. of Food & PD, Deptt. of PIB, Adviser (RCR), Adviser (MB), Adviser(RV), Adviser (ANB) & Adviser (TPB) and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group in future