F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                         Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 14^th March, 2007  

SUBJECT: PRESENTATION IN THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 09.03.2007

Presentations in the meeting  

Rainfall & Temperature (As reported by India Meteorological Department, (IMD) 

Rainfall during the week ending on  7^th March, 2007

·        Fairly widespread precipitation   occurred over Northwest India with isolated heavy falls over Punjab and Haryana on 1^st March, 07.   The precipitation activity was scattered over Northwest India on 2^nd March, 07.   Thereafter, mainly dry weather prevailed over the region outside Jammu & Kashmir where isolated rain / snow occurred on 4^th and 5^th March, 07.

·        Scattered rain / thundershowers occurred over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Jharkhand on 1^st and 2^nd March, over Gangetic West Bengal on 2^nd March and over Orissa on 2^nd and 3^rd March,07.  Isolated rain/thundershowers also occurred over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during 5^th –7^th March, 07.

·        Fairly widespread rain / thundershowers occurred over Northeastern States on 2^nd March, 07.   It was scattered on 3^rd March 2007 and isolated during remaining days of the week.

·        Scattered rain / thundershowers occurred over Rajasthan on 1^st March and isolated rain / thundershowers occurred over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on 1^st and 2^nd March, 07.

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers occurred over Kerala during 2^nd – 4^th March, 07 and Tamil Nadu on 4^th March and over Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 4^th & 5^th  March, 07.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country during the week.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (01^st March – 07^th March, 07 ) was below  normal by 13% (Actual 5.1 mm,  Normal 5.8 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

    Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  March  to  07^th March, 2007 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Pre-Monsoon season was below normal by 13% (Actual 5.1 mm,  Normal 5.8 mm).

        Distribution of Rainfall:  

Ø        Excess rainfall in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

            Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st March to  07^th March, 07  in four regions of the country [2]

               Source: IMD  

        Table – 2: Table below gives the cumulative Pre-Monsoon Season rainfall status this year as well as previous  five years:

            Source: IMD

     Minimum Temperature

·        The minimum temperature was near normal over Northwest India on many days of the week.

·        It was below normal by 2^oC- 5^oC over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during 3^rd – 6^th March, 07 and over entire East India from 7^th March, 07.

·        It was above normal by 3^oC- 6^oC on 1^st March, 07; below normal by 2^oC- 3^oC on 3^rd and 7^th March, 07 and normal during remaining days of the week over Central India .

Maximum Temperature

             ·        The maximum temperature was below normal by 2^oC- 5^oC over Northwest India , Central and East India on many days of the week.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the Week Ending 14^th March 2007 by IMD

Outlook for the Week Ending on 14^th March, 2007

·        Under the influence of two Western Disturbances in quick succession, one from 9^th to 10^th March, 07 and another from 11^th to 13^th March 07, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall / snowfall activity is likely from 9^th to 13^th March, 07 over Western Himalayan region with possibility of isolated heavy falls on 12^th & 13^th March, 07.   Isolated to scattered rain/ thundershowers is also likely over plains of Northwest India on 9^th & 10^th March, 07.   This activity is likely to increase on 11^th and 12^th March, 07 with possibility of isolated hailstorm and squall.   This activity may further extend into East India on 12^th and 13^th March, 07.

·        Increase in night temperature likely by 3^oC- 4^oC over Northwest India from 9^th March onwards and over Gangetic plains & East India from 11^th March, 07 onwards.   Day temperature is likely to drop significantly particularly during 11^th to 13^th March, 07.  

Zone-wise Weather Forecast:

 North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Rain / snow is likely at many places over Jammu & Kashmir and at a few places over Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal on 9^th & 10^th March, 07.   Rain/snow at most places with isolated heavy falls over Western Himalayan region during 11^th to 13^th March, 07.

·        Isolated    rain/thundershowers are likely over the plains during first 2 days and fairly widespread rain/thundershowers  with isolated hail/squall thereafter.

East India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·         Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during the period. 

·         Mainly dry weather is likely over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during next 2 days and scattered rain/ thundershowers with isolated hail / squall thereafter.

    North-East India (Arunachal Pradesh, NMM& T, Assam , Meghalaya)

• Mainly dry weather is likely over the region.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

    ·        Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over Chhatisgarh, Southeast Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during first 3 days.  Scattered rain/ thundershowers are likely over North Madhya Pradesh and North Chhattisgsarh on 12^th and 13^th March, 07.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Mainly weather is likely over the region except light rain/thundershowers in isolated pockets of South Tamil Nadu, South Kerala and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Mainly dry weather is likely over the region except over Rajasthan where isolated rain / thundershowers is likely during first 2 days and scattered thereafter.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 08.03.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 62.49  BCM from 65.38 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 2.39 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 13.26 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

                        Source: CWC

·        There were 64 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 7 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

·        There were three reservoirs namely Gumti (TRP), Vaigai (TN) and Vanivilas Sagar (Karnataka) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

                                                         Source: Central Water Commission

            Fertilizer Position:

     Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP during February, 2007

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

                          Source: Fertilizer Division

         Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

                 Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

            Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 24.02.2007 increased by 0.05 percentage points to 6.10% from the previous week’s level of 6.05%.  The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  fell by 0.50%  and for the foodgrains by 0.37 % over the week on account of decline in WPI for Wheat by (0.26%), Jowar by (0.99%), Maize (0.04%), Barley by (0.83%), Gram (5.57%), Masur by (0.24%), Urad by (2.29%) and Sugar by (0.99%).   The increase in WPI of Rice by (0.16%), Ragi by (2.29%), Arhar by (0.57%) and Moong by (0.06%) was observed.  The inflation rate was 4.18% during the corresponding period last year.

        Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

    Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Wheat, Atta, Sugar,  Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Tea (Loose), Milk, Potato, Tomato and Gourd (Lauki) remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Groundnut oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.0%) and Brinjal (Rs. 1.50 per, 11.5%).     Fall in price was noted in Rice (50 paise per kg, 3.3%), Gram dal ( Rs. 1.50 per kg, 4.3%), Tur dal (50 paise per kg, 1.4%) and Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 6.7%).

As compared to the last year, price of Potato remained steady.    Increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 11.5%), Wheat (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 14.3%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 13.0%),Gram Dal (Rs. 6.50 per kg, 24.1%), Tur dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.9%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 6.00 per ltr., 12.0%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 12.00 per ltr, 14.1%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per ltr, 19.1%), Milk (Rs. 2.00 per ltr, 12.5%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.50 per kg, 5.3%), Onion (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 100.0%), Tomato (Rs.2.00 per kg, 18.2%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Rs. 4.00 per kg, -18.2%), Brinjal (50 paise per kg, -3.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg,             -11.8%) was observed.  

         Procurement :  

                                Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 09.03.2007 (lakh tonnes)

    Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.  

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON   09 .03.2007.

Shri Vijay Kumar                            Adviser                                      Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri J.P. Mishra                         Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

2.         Shri T.P. Singh                          Asstt. Director (TMOP)

3.         Shri Rakesha Agrawal                Asstt. Director  

I.M.D.

4.         Dr. B.P. Yadav                           Director

 C.W.C.

5.         Shri S.K. Sinha                          A.D.

P.P.Q & S

6.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

CENTRAL GROUND WATER BOARD

7.         Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

I.C.A.R.

8.         Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

N.C.F.C.

9.        Shri Jitender Kumar                   Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

10.      Shri P.S. Meena                         Addl. E.A.

11.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                  Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Earth & Science, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Deptt. of Fertilizer, R.B.I., Deptt. of Food & PD and P.I.B. did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.