F. NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 13^th July, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   10.07.2006.

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 10.07.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr S.M. Jharwal, Pr. Adviser, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture.A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006) 

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  July Rainfall

·        Rainfall in the month of July 2006 for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of its LPA with the model error of ± 9%.

(iii) Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below:

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Progress of Southwest Monsoon

·        The Southwest monsoon further advanced into some more parts of West Uttar Pradesh and Haryana including Delhi on 9^th July, 2006.  The Northern limit of monsoon as on 09^th July, 06 passed through Udaipur, Gwalior, Agra, Delhi, Ambala and Amritsar. 

Rainfall during the week ending on  09^th July, 2006[1]

·        From 3^rd to 7^th July, 06 widespread rains occurred at a few places over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat.

·        Enhanced rainfall activity with heavy to very heavy falls occurred over Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai) upto 7^th July, 06 and decreased thereafter.

·        Widespread rains also occurred over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka throughout the week.  Fairly widespread rains occurred over Northeastern States, West Bengal & Sikkim and scattered over  remaining parts of the country outside Tamil Nadu, North Interior Karnataka and North Rajasthan where it was isolated. 

·        During the latter half of the week, rainfall activity increased with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Northeastern States, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

·        Towards the end of the week fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Western Himalayan region, Punjab and Haryana including Delhi. 

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (29^th June to 05^th July, 2006) was  above normal by 14% (Actual 68.7 mm, Normal 60.5  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 19 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  05^th July, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 9% (Actual 187.9  mm,  Normal 206.6 mm).   Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 25 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 11 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  05^th July, 2006

 FORECAST (0830 HRS. IST OF 10^TH JULY TO 0830 HRS.OF 13^TH JULY, 2006)

·        Rainfall is likely  at most places over West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar and Jharkhand; at many places over Northeastern States, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Orissa, East Uttar Pradesh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and along the West Coast.

·        Scattered rainfall / thundershowers likely over Lakshadweep, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh,  Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh and isolated over the rest region.

·        Rainfall activity is likely to increase over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh after 1-2 days.

Warning

·        Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places over West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and East Uttar Pradesh.

·        Isolated heavy falls are also likely over Northeastern States, Orissa, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal.

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (10^th July  -  16^th July, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Fairly widespread with isolated heavy rainfall are expected over J&K, H.P. and Uttaranchal.

·        Present rainfall activity over Punjab, Haryana and West U.P. are likely to continue during next 3 days.  Then it may increase and widespread with isolated heavy rains may be received during 14^th – 15^th July, 2006. 

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rains are likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, NE States and North Bihar during next 3-4 days.
• Fairly widespread rainfall  are expected over Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.
• Scattered rainfall is expected over Orissa during next 48 hrs.   Widespread rainfall is expected during 13^th – 15^th July, 2006. 

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Isolated rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh during 3 days.  Rainfall activity may increase during 15^th –17^th July, 2006.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Scattered rainfall is likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka during next 3-4 days.  Rainfall activity may increase after 14^th July, 2006. 

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Vidarbha are also likely to receive isolated rainfall during next 3 days.  Rainfall activity may increase after 14^th July, 2006.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Isolated heavy to very rainfall is likely over Northeastern States, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Nepal and adjoining East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during 3-4 days.  Flood situation may develop over North Bihar.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        As fairly widespread to widespread rain over Punjab, Haryana, U.P., Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand is expected, farmers of the region are advised to take up transplanting of paddy seedlings.  Further, wherever nursery is expected to be ready within the week, farmers are advised to carry out field preparation for transplanting by the end of the week.  In the upland regions of Chotanagpur and Madhya Pradesh, if not sown earlier, it is recommended to broadcast the paddy seeds.  As isolated rainfall is predicted in Central and West India during next week.  Farmers are advised to take up sowing of groundnut, soyabean and pulses like moong & urad, arhar etc.  Treat the seeds with Rhizobium culture before sowing.  In the light of heavy rainfall predicted in North Bihar farmers of the region may plan accordingly for proper drainage from the field of maize, sugarcane and vegetables etc.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 07.07.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 37.27 BCM from 29.74 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 6.38 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 10.89 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There are 56 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 9 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 4 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There are six reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and one reservoir having nil/negative live storage namely, Sriram Sagar – AP.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Summary of progress of Kharif crop (area coverage) 

(Area in lakh hectares)

Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 24.06.2006 declined by 0.60 percentage points to 4.84% from the previous week’s level of 5.44% on account of decrease in WPI of Rice & Wheat (0.4% each),Barley (0.5%), Sugar (0.2%) and Masur (0.3%) over the week. Whereas, the WPI of Ragi, Maize & Bajra rose by 2.8%, 1.5% and 1.5% respectively and Moong & Gram by 1.4% & 0.9% respectively.  The inflation rate was 4.30% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of Essential Commodities at Delhi

                                                                                                         (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week, fall in prices was noted in Tur dal (Re.1.00 per kg, -2.9%), Sugar (Re.1.00 per kg, -4.5%), Tea (Loose) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -0.9%), Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -10.0%), Tomato (Rs. 7.00 per kg, -25.9%) and Brinjal (Rs. 3.00 per kg,         -17.1%).  Prices of Tomato have indicated a declining trend since last week from Rs. 27.00 per kg to Rs. 20.00 per kg.  

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Gram Dal (Rs. 6.50 per kg, 26.5%),Tomato (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 25.0%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 12.5%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%) and Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%).  Prices of some of the essential commodities have decreased over the last year: Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 7.00 per kg, -43.8%) and Brinjal (Rs.2.50 per kg, 14.7%).

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card: 

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Fertilizer Position:

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 30^th June, 2006 

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 10.07.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  10.07.2006.

Dr. S.M. Jharwal                              Pr. Adviser                           Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S.M. Desalphine                 Addl. Secretary

2.         Dr. N.B. Singh                           Agri. Commissioner

3.         Shri S.L. Bhat                            JS (Crops, TMOP & Seeds)

4.         Dr. H.C. Gautam                        Addl. Commissioner

5.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

6.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

7.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer

8.         Shri C.S. Mathod                       Asstt. Editor (Extn)

I.M.D.

9.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

10.        Dr. Ranjeet  Singh                      P.S.O.

C.W.C

11.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

12.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

13.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

14.        Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

15.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

16.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

17.        Shri V.K. Bhardwaj                     US (Policy)

P.I.B.

18.        Smt. Santha Balakrishnan          JD (Media & Communication)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

19.        Shri A.K. Neog                          E.S.A.

20.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

21.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director

N.C.F.C.

22.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

23.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.