F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                        Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 18th January, 2007

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 12.01.2007.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 12th January 2007 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                                (Sudha Keshari)

                                    Asst. E.A.

                                     Ph No. 7541

                                 e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.) 

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer,  DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (AKB), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB)

 I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI) 

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

 MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

Director (IMD),

 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA      

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

   Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/   PPS  to  Addl. Secy. (PPM)/   PPS

       to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

              F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 12.01.2007

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 12.01.2007 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.L. Bhatt, JS (Crops & TMOP), DAC.  The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on  10^th January, 2007

Rainfall

·        Scattered snowfall activity occurred over higher ridges of Jammu & Kashmir on 10^th January, 07.

·        Isolated light rainfall  occurred over Tamil Nadu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during a few days of the week.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country during the week.

Fog

·        Morning fog conditions prevailed over some parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and adjoining Assam on 4^th, 5^th and 7^th January, 07 and over some parts of  the plains of Northwest India during 9^th –10^th January, 07.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (04^th   -  10^th January, 07 ) was below normal by 99% (Actual 0.0 mm  Normal 4.6 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 34 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  January  to  10^th January, 2007 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Winter season was below normal by 98% (Actual 0.1 mm  Normal 6.2 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 05 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 31 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st January to  10^th January, 07  in four regions of the country [2]

 Temperature:

Maximum Temperature

·        Cold wave conditions prevailed over many parts of Punjab and some parts in Haryana, Delhi and East Uttar Pradesh on many days and over Bihar , Jharkhand and Rajasthan on a few days during the week. 

·        The minimum temperature was below normal by 2^oC-3^oC over remaining parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains throughout the week.

·        It was nearly normal over Peninsular, Central and Northeast India .

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (12^th -  18^th  January, 2007), by IMD and NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 17^th January, 2007

·        Cold wave conditions are likely to continue over some parts in the plains of Northwest India during the week.  It is also likely over East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar from middle of the week.

·        A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan region towards end of the week.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

• Isolated to scattered snowfall is likely over Jammu & Kashmir and H.P. during 12^th  January, 07.
• Night temperature is likely to fall over Northwest India from 13^th January, 07.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

• Mainly dry weather is expected over rest of the region during next 4-5 days.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

• Mainly dry weather is likely over the region during next 5 days.
• Night temperature is likely to fall from 13^th January, 07 over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

• Isolated shower is likely over Nicobar, Lakshadweep , Kerala and Tamil Nadu during 13 January, 07.
• Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over rest of the region.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

• Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the region .
• Night temperature is  likely to fall over Rajasthan  and Gujarat from 13^th January, 2007 .

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 11.01.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 81.16  BCM from 88.11 BCM reported last week. The current storage is less than the last year’s position by 3.91 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 11.76 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·        There were 66 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 4 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 4  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·        There were 2 reservoirs namely Gumti (TRP) and Nagarjuna Sagar (A.P.) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

            Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto  3^rd January, 2007

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

    Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

    Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 30.12.2006 increased by 0.10 percentage points to 5.58% from the previous week’s level of 5.48%.  The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  rose by 0.02% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.06%),  Bajra by (0.49%), Maize by (0.30%), Arhar by (1.77%) and Moong by (0.30%).  The inflation rate for the foodgrains  fell by 0.09%.   Decline was observed in WPI of Wheat by (0.09%), Jowar by (0.04%), Barley by (0.17%), Ragi by (0.33%),  Gram by (2.45%) and Urad by (0.07%).   The inflation rate of Sugar fell by (0.75%).  The inflation rate was 4.56% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,   Gram dal, Tur dal,  Sugar, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Milk, Potato and Brinjal remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Groundnut oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.1%) and Onion (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 16.7%).  Fall in prices was noted in Tomato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 6.7%) .

 As compared to the last year increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Atta (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%),Gram Dal (Rs. 10.00 per kg, 37.0%), Tur dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 3.1%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 7.00 per ltr., 13.7%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 10.7%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 7.50 per kg, 7.4%), Tomato (Rs.3.50 per kg, 46.7%) and  Onion (Rs. 5.00 per kg, 55.6%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, -5.0), Potato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -25.0), Brinjal (50 paise per kg, -4.8) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.00 per kg, -17.6%) was observed.  

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 12.01.2007 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON  12.01.2007.

Shri S.L. Bhatt                                 Joint Secretary                                   Chairman

DTE. OF ECO. & STAT.

1.         Shri T.P. Biswas                        Adviser

2.         Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

3.         Shri J.P. Mishra                         Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

5.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

6.         Shri C.S. Mathad                       Asstt. Editor (Extn.)

7.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer (INM)

8.         Shri Rakesh Agrawal                  Asstt. Director

DEPTT. OF ERARTH & SCIENCE

9.         Shri J.V. Singh                          Scientist ‘D’

C.W.C.

10.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          A.D.

P.P.Q & S

11.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

12.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

13.        Shri S.M. Gupta                         US (Policy)

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

14.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director

N.C.F.C.

15.      Shri P.S. Meena                         Addl. E.A.

16.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                  Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from IMD, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Central Ground Water Board, P.I.B. and  RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.