F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 18^th  October, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  13.10.2006.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 13^th October 2006 , is enclosed.  The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 13.10.2006 under the Chairmanship of Sh. S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                (Sudha Keshari)

                   Asstt. E.A

                 Ph No. 4644

              e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

 Rainfall

  End of Season Report 2006

·        For the country as a whole, the seasonal rainfall from 1st June to 30th September,2006 was 99% of its long period average (LPA).

·        Seasonal rainfall over Central India was excess by 16% and it was 94% and 95% of LPA respectively over Northwest India and South Peninsula . It was however deficient over northeast India by 17%.

·        Out of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, the seasonal (June-September) rainfall was excess in 6 and normal in 20 sub-divisions. However, it was deficient in 10 sub-divisions.

·        Out of 533 meteorological districts, 60% of the meteorological districts  received excess/normal rainfall and the remaining 40% received deficient/scanty rainfall during the season. 130 districts (25%) experienced moderate drought and 30 districts (6%) experienced severe drought conditions at the end of the season.

·        Five sub-divisions (Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, West Uttar Pradesh and Haryana experienced moderate drought  conditions (rainfall deficiency of 26% to 50%) at the end of the season.

·        IMD’s long range forecast for July rainfall over the country as whole and the 2006 seasonal rainfall over North West India and South Peninsula were proved to be accurate.  However, the 2006 Monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as whole was slightly more than the predicted value.

  Rainfall during the week ending on  13^th  October, 2006

          ·        Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman                 & Nicobar Islands on many days of the week with isolated heavy to very heavy falls on some days.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Northeastern States , West Bengal & Sikkim and Orissa in the beginning of the week which decreased subsequently and isolated rainfall was experienced  on the remaining days of the week.

·        Scattered light to moderate rainfall continued over extreme South Peninsula throughout the week.

·        Isolated light rainfall occurred over Bihar , Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra on some days of the week.

·        Weather remained mainly dry over the rest of the country.

  Withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon

·        The Southwest monsoon further withdrew from the  from remaining parts of East  Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh & Gujarat, entire Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh & Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, most parts of Konkan & Goa, Orissa and some parts of Gangetic West Bengal, Telangana & North Interior Karnataka.  The withdrawal line passes through Cooch Behar , Midnapore, Bhubaneshawar, Hyderabad and Ratnagiri.

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the week (05^th  – 11^th  October, 2006) was below normal by 53% (Actual 11.2 mm, Normal 23.7  mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 04 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 15 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1st October  to  11^th October, 2006 )

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the Post-Monsoon season was below normal by 47% departure (Actual 21.4 mm  Normal 40.2 mm).

           Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 16 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

  Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st October to  11^th October, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for the period (11^th – 13^th October, 2006), by IMD

North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Rain/ thundershowers are likely at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh and isolated places over North Punjab and Uttaranchal.  Mainly dry weather is likely over the rest region.

East India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·        Isolated rain/ thundershowers are likely over West Bengal & Sikkim . Mainly dry weather likely over the rest region.

North-East India ( Arunachal Pradesh, NMM & T, Assam Meghalaya)

·        Rain/ thundershowers are likely at a few places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and isolated over the rest region.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Mainly dry weather is likely over the region.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands; Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry, Lakshadweep and Kerala and isolated over the rest region outside Andhra Pradesh and North Interior Karnataka where weather will be mainly dry.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·         Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over South Konkan & Goa .  Mainly dry weather is likely over the rest region. 

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 12.10.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 119.73  BCM from 120.20 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 11.32 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 25.90 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·        There were 71 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 3 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·        There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Table – 4: Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

      Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 30.09.2006 increased by 0.40 percentage points to 5.17% from the previous week’s level of 4.77%. The inflation rate for the Agriculture Commodities rose by 0.04% over the week. For foodgrains it rose by 0.24% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.17%), Wheat by (0.18%), Jowar by (0.07%), Bajra by (2.21%), Gram by (2.40%), Arhar by (0.60%), Urad by (0.81%) and Sugar by (0.47%). The WPI of food items declined: Maize by (1.10%) and Moong by (1.21%). The inflation rate was 4.60% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·         Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·         Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Wheat, Atta,  Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Milk, Potato, Onion and Brinjal remained at the same level as they were last week .  Rise in prices was noted in Rice (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.1%), Tea (Loose) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 0.9%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%).   Fall in prices was noted in Gram dal (50 paise per kg, -1.1%) and Tomato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -9.1%).

As compared to the last year the price of Potato has remained steady. Increase in prices of Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Atta (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 26.3%), Wheat (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 29.4%), Gram Dal (Rs. 19.00 per kg, 76.0%), Tur dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 6.1%), Tomato (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 81.8%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 16.7%), Mustard Oil (Re. 1.00 per ltr., 1.9%),Groundnut oil (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 9.8%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 6.4%) and  Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.0%) and decrease in price of Brinjal (Rs. 5.00 per kg, -29.4%), Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -8.3%) and   Onion (Rs. 6.00 per kg,  -40.0%) is noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 30^th September, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card:

Table – 7: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed  

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 13.10.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  13.10.2006.

Shri S.M. Desalphine                     Addl. Secretary                                   Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

2.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

3.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

4.         Shri D. K. Roy                            Under Secretary (INM)

I.M.D.

5.         Shri B. P. Yadav                        Director

C.W.C.

6.         Shri S. K. Sinha                         Asstt. Director

7.         Shri K.M. Hamza                       E.A.D.

P.P.Q & S

8.         Shri S.S. Verma                                    Dy. Director

I.C.A.R.

9.         Dr. D.K. Paul                             Principal Scientist

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

10.        Shri S.M. Gupta                         US (Policy)

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

11.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

12.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

N.C.F.C.

13.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

14.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

15.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                   Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from NCMRWF, P.I.B., Central Ground Water Board, Horticulture Division, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs and RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.