F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                         Room no. 344-A, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 22^nd March, 2007  

SUBJECT: PRESENTATION IN THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 16.03.2007

Presentations in the meeting  

Rainfall & Temperature (As reported by India Meteorological Department, (IMD) 

Rainfall during the week ending on  14^th March, 2007

·        Rain/snow occurred at a few places on 10^th & 11^th March, 07 at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls on 12^th, 13^th & 14^th March, 07 over Western Himalayan region.

·        Over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Rajasthan light to moderate rain/thundershowers occurred at a few places on 10^th & 11^th  March, 07 and at many places on 12^th, 13^th  & 14^th March, 07.

·        Isolated rain/thundershowers occurred over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha on 12^th March, which became scattered to fairly widespread on 13^th & 14^th March, 07.

·        Scattered rain / thundershowers occurred over Bihar , Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Jharkhand during 13^th & 14^th March, 07. Isolated scattered rain/thundershowers also occurred over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and northeastern States on a few days of the week.

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers occurred over Kerala on 8^th March, 07 and over Tamil Nadu on 13^th & 14^th March, 07.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country during the week.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (08^th March – 14^th March, 07 ) was above  normal by 186% (Actual 18.0 mm,  Normal 6.3 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  March  to  14^th March, 2007 )

             ·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Pre-Monsoon season was above normal by 89% (Actual 22.9 mm,  Normal 12.1 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st March to  14^th March, 07  in four regions of the country 

              Source: IMD  

Table – 2: Table below gives the cumulative Pre-Monsoon Season rainfall status this year as well as previous  five years:

            Source: IMD

Minimum Temperature

·        The minimum temperatures were below normal by 2^oC- 4^oC over northwest India , Gujarat , Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and northeast India during first half and normal during second half of the week.

·        They were above normal by 2^oC- 4^oC  over Central India on many days of the week..  

Maximum Temperature

·        The maximum temperatures were normal over Northwest India in the beginning of the week and became below normal by 2^oC- 5^oC  during 10^th & 11^th March, 07 and by 5^oC- 10^oC thereafter. They were below normal by 4^oC- 8^oC over Rajasthan and Gujarat during 11^th to 14^th March, 07.

·        Over East India , they were below normal by 2^oC- 5^oC during the week except on 10^th & 11^th when they were normal. They were normal over Central and Peninsular India on many days of the week.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period during ( 17^th -  22^nd March 2007) by NCMRWF &  IMD

Outlook for the Week Ending on 21^st  March, 2007

·        Scattered to fairly widespread precipitation likely over Western Himalayan region from 17^th  March, 07  night onwards for next 3-4 days. Isolated rain/thundershowers also likely over the adjoining plains of Punjab and north Haryana from 18^th March, 07 onwards.  

Zone-wise Weather Forecast:

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall are likely over J&K, H.P., Uttarkhand during 18-21 March and Isolated thundershower/rain are likely over Punjab and Haryana during 20-21 March, 07.  

East & East India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·         Isolated to scattered thundershower/rainfall is likely over NE states during 17^th – 18^th March, 07.

·         Mainly dry weather is likely over rest of the region.  

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

• Mainly dry weather is likely over the region.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers are likely over South Tamil Nadu and Kerala during 17^th – 18^th March, 07.   Mainly dry weather is likely over rest of the region.  

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Mainly dry weather is likely over rest of  the region.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 15.03.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 57.71  BCM from 62.49 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 3.15 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 14.56 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

                        Source: CWC

·        There were 64 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 7 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

·        There were three reservoirs namely Gumti (TRP), Vaigai (TN) and Vanivilas Sagar (Karnataka) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

                                       Source: Central Water Commission

            Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP during February, 2007                                                                                               

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

                          Source: Fertilizer Division

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops.

     Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

    Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 03.03.2007 increased by 0.36 percentage points to 6.46% from the previous week’s level of 6.10%.  The inflation rate for the agricultural commodities  rose by 0.12%  whereas for the foodgrains fell  by 0.66 % over the week on account of decline in WPI for Wheat by (1.08%), Jowar by (1.64%), Bajra by (2.04%), Ragi by (1.10%), Gram (0.79%), Arhar by (2.01%), Moong by (0.03%), Urad by (5.64%) and Sugar by (0.93%).   Increase in WPI of Rice by (0.16%), Maize (1.31%), Barley by (0.39%) and Masur by (0.28%) was observed.  The inflation rate was 3.86% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Wheat, Atta, Tur dal, Sugar,  Groundnut oil, Vanaspati, Milk and Gourd (Lauki) remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Rice (50 paise per kg, 3.4%) and Tea (Loose) (50 paise per kg, 0.5%), Potato (50 paise per kg, 6.7%) and Brinjal (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 10.3%).     Fall in price was noted in Gram dal ( Rs. 1.50 per kg, 4.5%), Mustard oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.8%), Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.1%) and Tomato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.7%).

As compared to the last year, price of Potato, Brinjal and Gourd (Lauki) remained steady.    Increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 13.0%),Gram Dal (Rs. 5.00 per kg, 18.5%), Tur dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 6.1%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 6.00 per ltr., 12.2%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 12.00 per ltr, 14.1%), Vanaspati (Rs. 8.00 per ltr, 16.7%), Milk (Rs. 2.00 per ltr, 12.5%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 7.8%), Onion (Rs. 5.50 per kg, 73.3%), Tomato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Rs. 3.00 per kg, -14.3%)was observed.  

  Procurement :

                          Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 15.03.2007 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.