F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 19^th July, 2006 

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   17.07.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 17.07.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture.A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group  is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.  

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall 

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006) 

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole 

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %. 

(ii)  July Rainfall

·        Rainfall in the month of July 2006 for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of its LPA with the model error of ± 9%.  

(iii) Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below: 

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8% 

Progress of Southwest Monsoon 

·        The Southwest monsoon further advanced into remaining parts of Haryana & Punjab and most parts of East Rajasthan and some more parts of West Rajasthan on 10^th & 11^th July, 2006.  The Northern limit of monsoon as on 11^th July, 06 passed through Udaipur, Ajmer, Churu and Sri Ganganagar. 

Rainfall during the week ending on  16^th July, 2006[1] 

·        Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall occurred over Northwest India during 10^th to 13^th July, 2006 which decreased thereafter. 

·        Widespread rainfall continued along the West Coast with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka throughout the week. 

·        Widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls also occurred over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh on some days of the week and over East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh during last two days of the week. 

·        Fairly widespread rainfall continued over Northeastern States and scattered over remaining parts of the country, outside South Peninsula, West Rajasthan, Gujarat and Interior Maharashtra where rainfall activity remained subdued.

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (06^th July – 12^th July, 2006) was  below normal by 17% (Actual 54.9 mm, Normal 65.8  mm). Rainfall was: 

Ø        Excess / normal in 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country. 

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 19 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  12^th July, 2006) 

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 10% (Actual 245.0  mm,  Normal 272.7 mm).   Rainfall was: 

Ø        Excess / Normal in 27 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country. 

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.   

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2] 

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  12^th July, 2006

 FORECAST (0830 HRS. IST OF 17^TH JULY TO 0830 HRS.OF 20^TH JULY, 2006) 

·        Rain / thundershowers likely at many places over Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand during next 2-3 days.  

·        Scattered rainfall activity is likely over West Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours which is likely to increase thereafter. 

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers likely over Northwest India with possibility of increase rainfall over West Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan after 48 hours. 

·        Scattered rainfall activity is likely along the West Coast and over Gujarat region during next 1-2 days, which is likely to increase thereafter over Konkan & Goa and Gujarat. 

·        Scattered rainfall activity also likely over Northeastern States, West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, Vidarbha and East Uttar Pradesh. 

·        Rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued over the South Peninsula. 

Warning 

·        Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Orissa,   Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours.

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (17^th July  -  23^rd July, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Isolated rainfall is expected over Northwest India during next 3 days.

·        Rainfall activity may  increase from 21^st  July, 2006. 

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains are likely over Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand during next 2-3 days.
• Scattered rainfall is expected over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and NE States.  

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Fairly widespread  to widespread rainfall with  isolated heavy falls is likely over Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh during next 2 days then may extend to West MP.

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Vidarbha after 24 hours.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Fairly widespread  rainfall with isolated heavy fall  is likely over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during next 48 hours

·        Scattered rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 24 hours.  Rainfall  activity may increase afterwards. Isolated rainfall activity over remaining areas-North Interior Karantaka, Telangana and Rayalseema. 

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely to continue over Konkan & Goa.

·        Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada are also likely to receive isolated rainfall during next 2 days.  Rainfall activity may increase thereafter.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over South Gujarat, Saurashtra and East Rajasthan after 2 days.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely at a few places over Chhattsigarh, Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh.

·        Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall also likely over Coastal Karanatka, Konkan & Goa, Orissa and East Uttar Pradesh.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        In the light of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall predicted over Orissa, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, East Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, farmers of the regions are advised to take up transplanting of paddy seedlings.  Plan for proper drainage from maize fields.

·        In NW India, central India, AP and Maharashtra farmers are advised for transplanting the nursery plants of vegetables like cauliflower, tomato, brinjal, chilli etc. during this week.

·        In North Tamil Nadu and South Interior Karnataka, farmers are advised to maintain optimum room temperature of poultry raring houses.   Care should be taken against the rapid change in air temperature and relative humidity.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 14.07.2006) 

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country.   

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 48.59 BCM from 37.27 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 9.56 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 17.36 BCM. 

For 76 major reservoirs of the country 

·         There are 59 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 8 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage. 

·         There are five reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and two reservoirs having nil/negative live storage namely, Sriram Sagar – AP and Gandhi Sagar- MP. 

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006) 

Summary of progress of Kharif crop (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs) 

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 01.07.2006 increased by 0.12 percentage points to 4.96% from the previous week’s level of 4.84%.  But the WPI of agriculture commodities fell by 1.4% over the week, the WPI of foodgrains fell by 0.3% over the week on account of decrease in WPI of Wheat (0.2%), Bajra (0.8%), Maize and Jowar (0.3% each)  and pulses by 0.9% over the week.  The inflation rate was 4.14% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of Essential Commodities at Delhi

                                                                                                         (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi 

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week, fall in prices was noted in Tur dal (Re.1.00 per kg,   -3.0%), Tea (Loose) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -0.9%) and Tomato (Rs. 5.00 per kg, -25.0%).  Prices of Tomato have indicated a declining trend since last week from Rs. 20.00 per kg to Rs. 15.00 per kg.  

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Gram Dal (Rs. 6.00 per kg, 24.0%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%).  Prices of some of the essential commodities have decreased over the last year: Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 14.00 per kg, -60.9%), Brinjal (Rs.12.50 per kg, -46.3%) and Tomato (Rs. 7.00 per kg, -31.8%). 

Pest & Diseases:  

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position: 

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card:

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Fertilizer Position: 

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 30^th June, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 17.07.2006 (lakh tonnes)           

Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 17.07.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  17.07.2006. 

Shri S.M. Desalphine                     Addl. Secretary                               Chairman 

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S.L. Bhat                            JS (Crops, TMOP & Seeds)

2.         Shri A.K. Bhatia                         Adviser (Hort)

3.         Dr. H.C. Gautam                        Addl. Commissioner

4.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

5.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

6.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer

7.         Shri C.S. Mathod                       Asstt. Editor (Extn) 

I.M.D.

8.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director 

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

9.         Dr. K.K.              Singh                          P.S.O. 

C.W.C

10.        Shri Chetan Pandit                     Director

11.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director 

P.P.Q & S

12.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM) 

I.C.A.R.

13.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro) 

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

14.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’ 

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

15.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)  

P.I.B.

16.        Smt. Santha Balakrishnan          JD (Media & Communication) 

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

17.        Shri A.K. Neog                          E.S.A.

18.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

19.        Shri A.N. Bhattacharjee              Adviser

20.        Shri R.C. Ray                            Adviser

21.        Shri T.P. Biswas                        Adviser

22.        Shri R. Viswanathan                   Adviser

23.        Mrs. Madhu Bala                       Adviser

24.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director 

N.C.F.C.

25.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

26.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

27.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Deptt. of Food & PD and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.