F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                                             Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 21^st September, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  18.09.2006.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 18^th  September 2006 , is enclosed.  The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 18.09.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES, Ministry of Agriculture. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

(Sudha Keshari)
                   Asstt. E..A.
                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)
e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole:

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September), the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall are as given below:

   Region                                      Rainfall

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India :                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Rainfall during the week ending on  17^th September, 2006

·        The monsoon was active over East Rajasthan on 7^th Sept, 06 and over West Rajasthan & Gujarat Region on 8^th Sept, 06 and over Saurashtra & Kutch on 17^th Sept, 06 causing isolated heavy to very heavy falls.  Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also occurred over West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha on 7^th Sept, 06 and over Konkan & Goa from 14^th to 17^th Sept, 06.

·        The monsoon was active/vigorous with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Arunachal Pradesh , Assam & Meghalaya and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.  Fairly widespread rainfall also occurred over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 11^th & 13^th Sept, 06 and over Gangetic West Bengal and Bihar on 10^th Sept, 06, it was isolated over these areas during rest of the days.

·        The monsoon was active/vigorous with isolated heavy to very heavy falls on many days over extreme  South Peninsula during entire period.  Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls also occurred over Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep on many days.

·        The rainfall activity was subdued over most parts  of Northwest India , Central India , East India and adjoining subdivisions of Telangana and Rayalseema with only scattered /isolated rainfall on some days of the week. 

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the week (07^th  -  13^th September, 2006) was below normal by 26% (Actual 34.3 mm, Normal 46.3  mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 11 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  13^th September, 2006 )  

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 2% (Actual 792.0 mm  Normal 804.9 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 19 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st June to  13^th September, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for the next  week by IMD and  NCMRWF (18^th   –  22^nd September, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over the region.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

• Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over South Orissa ; at a few places over rest Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand and isolated over the rest region.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at many  places over Vidarbha and South Chhattisgarh ; at a few places over North Chhattisgarh and South Madhya Pradesh and isolated over North Madhya Pradesh.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at most  places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and at many places over the rest region outside Tamil Nadu where it may be at a few places.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra; at many places over Marathawada and South Gujarat and at a few places over the rest region outside Rajasthan where it may be isolated.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai), Madhya Maharashtra, South Gujarat , South Orissa , South Chhattisgarh , Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshhadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Agro-meteorological Advisories

·        In NW India farmers are advised to apply irrigation to the crops and apply the second dose of nitrogen fertilizer.

·        In NE states there is likelihood of increase in rainfall activity during next week.  Farmers are advised to take advantage of rainfall.

·        In Southern Peninsula , the rainfall activity is expected to continue, farmers are advised to take advantage of predicted rainfall.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 14.09.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 116.89  BCM from 116.36 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 16.08 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 27.51 BCM.

Table – 2: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There were 70 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 4 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoir having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Table – 3: Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture

Table – 4: Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  18.08.2006)

Source: NHB data

      Generally, it is expected that with more market arrival prices would fall.  In the other words, inverse relationship exists between arrivals and prices.  However, from the above table it can be seen that during the given period of 2006 this phenomenon was observed in the case of Tomato only.  Also, comparing the prices and arrivals during the corresponding weeks in the years 2004 and 2005, it was observed that the inverse relationship between arrivals and prices is observed in the case of Potato and Tomato.

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 02.09.2006 declined by 0.23 percentage points to 4.78% from the previous week’s level of 5.01%. The inflation rate for the Agriculture Commodities rose by 1.43% over the week. For foodgrains it rose by 0.49% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.28%), Wheat by (1.03%), Bajra by (1.46%), Maize by (1.53%), Gram by (0.59%), Arhar by (0.11%), Moong (1.00%) and Masur by (0.20%). The WPI of other food items declined: Jowar by (1.06%) and Sugar by (0.18%). The inflation rate was 3.64% during the corresponding period last year. 

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta, Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil,  Vanaspati, Milk, Potato, Onion and Brinjal remained at the same level as they were last week . Rise in prices was noted in Gram dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 5.7%), Tea (Loose) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 0.9%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%).   Fall in prices was noted in Mustard oil (Re. 1.00 per lt, -1.9%) and Tomato (Rs. 4.00 per kg, -17.4%)).

As compared to the last year, price of Potato has remained steady. Increase in prices of Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 57.1%),  Brinjal (Rs. 5.00 per kg, 55.6%), Gram Dal (Rs. 12.00 per kg, 48.0%), Tomato (Rs. 5.00 per kg, 35.7%), Wheat (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 29.4%), Atta (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 26.3%), Vanaspati (Rs. 8.00 per lt, 17.0%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 8.5%),  Rice (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.7%), Sugar (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 7.7%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.50 per kg, 5.4%), Mustard oil (Rs. 2.00 per lt, 4.0%) and Tur dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 3.0%) and decrease in price of   Onion (Rs. 7.00 per kg, -43.8%) is noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 31^st August, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

 Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained generally below Economic Threshold Level (ETL) for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card:

Table – 7: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 18.09.2006 (lakh tonnes)

 Table – 9:Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 18.09. 06(lakh tonnes)

Table – 10:Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  18.09.2006.

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                                                     Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S.L. Bhat                            JS (Crops, TMOP & Seeds)

2.         Dr J.P. Mishra                           Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

3.         Shr iS. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

4.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

5.         Shri C.S. Mathod                       Extn. Division

6.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer (INM)

I.M.D.

7.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

8.         Dr. J.V. Singh                            P.S.O. (SCD)

P.P.Q & S

9.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

10.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

DEPTT. OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS

11.        Smt. Sunita Yadav                     Dy. Director

P.I.B.

12.        Smt. Santha Balakrishnan          JD (MEC)

CENTRAL GROUND WATER BOARD

13.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

14.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

15.        Shri J.C. Parsad                        Dy. E.A.           

N.C.F.C.

16.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

17.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

18.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Central Water Commission, I.C.A.R., Deptt. of Food & PD, Adviser (RCR), Adviser (Horticulture), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV) & Adviser (TPB) and RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.