F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                        Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 24th January, 2007

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 19.01.2007.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 19th January 2007 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                                (Sudha Keshari)

                                    Asst. E.A.

                                     Ph No. 7541

                                 e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.) 

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer,  DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (AKB), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB)

 I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI) 

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

 MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

Director (IMD),

 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA      

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

   Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/   PPS  to  Addl. Secy. (PPM)/   PPS

       to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

          F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 19.01.2007

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 19.01.2007 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES.  The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on  17^th January, 2007

Rainfall

·        Isolated rain / thundershwoers occurred over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam during 12^th - 14^th Jan. 07, over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during 15^th – 17^th   Jan. 07, over Nicobar Islands on 16^th Jan. 07 and over Jharkhand, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal on 17^th Jan. 07.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country.

Fog

·        Morning fog conditions prevailed at some places in Indo-Gangetic plains during 11^th – 13^th Jan. 07.   Isolated fog conditions prevailed during remaining days of the week.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (11^th   -  17^th January, 07 ) was below normal by 89% (Actual 0.4 mm  Normal 3.9 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 04 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 30 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  January  to  10^th January, 2007 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Winter season was below normal by 95% (Actual 0.5 mm  Normal 10.1 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 05 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 29 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

    Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st January to  17^th January, 07  in four regions of the country [2]

 Temperature:

Maximum Temperature

·        Cold wave/severe cold wave conditions prevailed over some parts of Punjab , Haryana, North Rajasthan , East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during many days of the week.  Minimum temperature was below normal by 2^oC-3^oC  over remaining parts of Indo-Gangetic plains and South Rajasthan during the week. 

·        It was below normal by 2^oC-3^oC over Gujarat during 14^th –15^th Jan. 07 and over Madhya Pradesh and North Chhattisgarh during second half of the week.

·        It was above normal over North-Eastern  States by 2^oC-3^oC in the beginning of the week and became below normal by 2^oC-3^oC in the second half of the week due to gradual decrease in minimum temperature.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (19^th -  25^th  January, 2007), by IMD and NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 24^th January, 2007

·        Rise in night temperature over Indo-Gangetic plains during 19^th – 20^th January, 07 and fall thereafter alongwith fog condition at some places.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Scattered snowfall/rain is likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and  Uttaranchal during 20^th Jan. 07   and  24^th  -25^th  January, 07.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·         Isolated rain/thundershower is likely over West Bengal , Arunachal Pradesh, and Assam &   Meghalaya. Mainly dry weather is likely over rest of the region.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

• Mainly dry weather is likely over the region during next 5 days.

·        Night temperature is likely to fall over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh on 20^th Jan,. 07.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Isolated shower  is likely over Andman &  Nicobar and Lakshdweep Islands during next 48 Hrs.

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the rest of the region.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the  region.

·        Night temperature is likely to fall over Rajasthan and Gujarat from 20^th Jan, 07.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 18.01.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 82.35  BCM from 81.16 BCM reported last week. The current storage is less than the last year’s position by 0.14 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 15.45 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·        There were 66 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 5 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 4  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·        There was only one reservoir namely Gumti (TRP) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP on  14^th  January, 2007

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

        Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

    Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 06.01.2007 increased by 0.54 percentage points to 6.12% from the previous week’s level of 5.58%.  The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  rose by 0.29% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.06%), Wheat by (0.51%), Maize by (0.67%), Ragi by (0.19%),   Arhar by (0.71%) and Masur by (0.08%).  Decline was observed in WPI of Jowar by (0.83%), Bajra by (0.90%), Barley by (1.18%), Gram by (0.79%), Moong by (2.04%), Urad by (1.31%) and Sugar by (1.38%).  The inflation rate was 3.86% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,   Gram dal, Tur dal,  Sugar, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Tea (Loose), Milk, Potato and Gourd (Lauki) remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Groundnut oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.1%) and Onion (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 21.1%), Tomato (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 27.3%) and Brinjal (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 30.0%) .

 As compared to the last year year price of Tur dal remained steady.   Increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Atta (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%),Gram Dal (Rs. 10.00 per kg, 37.0%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 7.00 per ltr., 13.7%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 10.00 per lt, 11.9%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.50 per kg, 6.3%), Tomato (Rs.6.00 per kg, 75.0%), Brinjal (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 30.0%)  and  Onion (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 88.9%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Rs. 1.50 per kg, -7.3), Potato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -25.0), and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.00 per kg,     -17.6%) was observed.  

Procurement :

        Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 19.01.2007 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON  19.01.2007.

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                                         Chairman

DTE. OF ECO. & STAT.

1.         Shri T.P. Biswas                        Adviser

2.         Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

3.         Shri J.P. Mishra                         Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

5.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

6.         Shri C.S. Mathad                       Asstt. Editor (Extn.)

7.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer (INM)

8.         Shri Rakesh Agrawal                  Asstt. Director

I.M.D.

9.         Dr. B.P. Yadav                           Director

C.W.C.

10.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          A.D.

CENTRAL GROUND WATER BOARD

11.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

P.P.Q & S

12.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

13.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

14.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director

N.C.F.C.

15.      Shri P.S. Meena                         Addl. E.A.

16.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                  Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Deptt. of Earth & Sciences, Deptt. of Food & PD, P.I.B. and  RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.