F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 22^nd June, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   19.06.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 19.06.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri. S.M. Desalphene, Addl. Secretary, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture.    A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in   

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.

·        Estimates also suggest that the probability for the 2006 South-West monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole  to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) is only    22%. 

Current Status  of Southwest Monsoon

·        The South-West monsoon continued to be in a weak phase throughout the week except over Northeastern states and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim where fairly widespread rains accompanied with isolated heavy to very heavy falls continued throughout the week. 

Rainfall during the week ending on  18^th June, 2006[1]

·        Scattered rains occurred over South Peninsula, South Konkan and Goa and Madhya Maharashtra during 2^nd half of the week.

·        Isolated to scattered rainfall also occurred over Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa during the 2^nd half of the week. 

·        Under the influence of an Eastward movement of Western Disturbance, scattered to fairly widespread rains occurred over Western Himalayas and scattered duststorm / thunderstorm accompanied with squall occurred over plains of Northwest India.

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (08^th  June to 14^th June, 2006) was  below normal by 46% (Actual 17.2 mm, Normal 32.0  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 04 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 32 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  14^th June, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 3% (Actual 54.2  mm,  Normal 55.9 mm).   Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 18 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 18 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  14^th June, 2006

District-wise rainfall distribution

NR- No rain,  ND-  No data. 

FORECAST BY IMD (0830 HRS. IST OF  19^th  June 2006, TO 0830 HRS. IST OF  22^nd JUNE, 2006)

·        Conditions are favourable for revival of Southwest Monsoon activity over the Peninsula including Maharashtra within next 2 to 3 days.

·        Ongoing rainfall activity over Northeastern States and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim is likely to continue.

·        Rainfall activity over Northwest India is likely to continue.
 

Medium Range Weather Forecast for the week by NCMRWF (19^th June - 25^th June, 2006)

MONSOON WATCH:

·        The Southwest monsoon has been continuously in weak phase since 8^th June, 2006. The   prevailing conditions of weak monsoon may continue during next 24-36 Hrs.

·        Thereafter, model predictions suggest that the favourable conditions are likely to develop for possible revival of southwest monsoon over south peninsular India in next 48 hrs.   However revival of monsoon may not be of  classical type. Subsequently the monsoon flow is expected to strengthen.

Weather  Systems:

·        Chief amount of rainfall (cm) during past 24 hours reported at 08:30 of 18^th Jun, 06  were: Medak-5, Hyderabad & Shillong-4 each, Bankura, Satara, Gangtok-3 each, Gadak, Kailashashr-2 each, Mumbai & Solapur-1 each.

·        Western Disturbances prevailed over J&K and adjoining region during past week.

·        At present a western disturbance lies at J&K, H.P. and adjoining hilly region. This W.D. is likely to move  away in eastward direction in next 24-36 Hrs.  Under its influence ongoing rainfall/snowfall activity over  J&K, H.P. and Uttranchal is expected to continue during next 24-36 Hrs. and reduce significantly thereafter.  Adjoining plains of NW India viz. Punjab and Haryana including Delhi are likely to receive isolated rain/thundershowers during next 24 Hrs.

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for next week:

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rain/snowfall is expected to continue over J&K, H.P. and Uttranchal during next 24-36 Hrs and reduce significantly thereafter. Adjoining plains of NW India viz. Punjab and Haryana including Delhi are likely to receive isolated rain/thundershowers during next 24 Hrs.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Fairly widespread rains / thundershowers with isolated heavy rains are likely over NE States and isolated to scattered over rest areas of the region except over East UP where it may be mainly dry during next 4-5 days.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Isolated rains /thundershowers are expected over Chhatisgarh and mainly dry weather over rest of the region during next 3-4 days.

·        Rainfall is likely to increase towards end of the week.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Scattered rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka and isolated over rest areas of the region during next 24-36 Hrs.  Subsequently rainfall is likely to enhance.

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Konkan & Goa may receive isolated to scattered rains during next 2-3 days. Other areas of the region are likely to experience mainly dry weather during this period.   Subsequently, rainfall over Konkan & Goa is likely to enhance to fairly widespread.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 16.06.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having their Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 30.43 BCM from 31.39 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 15.34 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 13.62 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There are 59 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 8 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 4 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There are two reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and three reservoirs having nil/negative live storage namely, Sriram Sagar – AP, Gandhi Sagar – Madhya Pradesh and Mula– Maharashtra.

 Crop Condition (Kharif 2006-07)

Summary of progress of Kharif crop (area coverage) 

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture

Area sown, Production and Average Wholesale Prices of Horticulture Commodities during the week ending 09.06.2006 in Delhi Market 

P:-  Market Price in Rs. / (Qtl.).    Source:NHB

A:- Arrival in Tonnes.
Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 03.06.2006 marginally increased by 0.04 percentage points to 4.72% from the previous week’s level of 4.68%. The inflation rate was 4.39% during the corresponding period last year.   WPI of food article increased by 1.1% while that of fruits & Vegetables increased by 3% for the week ending 3.6.2006.

Retail prices of essential commodities at Delhi

                                                                                                         (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week,  rise in prices was noted in Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%), Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 14.3%), Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 22.2%) and Tomato (Rs. 12.00 per kg, 109.1%).   Fall in prices was noted in Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, -5.3%) during the same period.    The reason for increase in the prices of Tomato is due to less arrival and damage to Tomato crop by heavy rains.  

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Tomato (Rs. 17.50 per kg, 318.2%), Potato (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 37.5%), Gram Dal (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 34.8%), Brinjal (Rs.4.00 per kg, 28.6%), Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 22.2%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Sugar (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 15.8%).

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card:

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

Fertilizer Position:

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizer Urea, DAP and MOP as on 31^st  May, 2006 

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 19.06.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution. 

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  19.06.2006.

Dr. S.M. Desalphine                       Addl. Secretary                               Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S.L. Bhat                            JS (Seeds, Crops & TMOP)

2.         Shri A. K. Bhatia                        Adviser (Hort.)

3.         Shri J.P. Mishra                         Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner                 

5.         Shri C.S. Mathad                       Asstt. Editor (Extn)

I.M.D.

6.         Shri B.K. Bandyopadhyay           Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

7.         Dr. A.K. Bhora                           Head

8.         Dr. L.S. Rathore                         Scientist

9.         Shri J.V. Singh                          P.S.O.

C.W.C

10.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

11.        Shri K.V. Prasad                        Dy. Director

P.P.Q & S

12.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

13.        Shri H.M. Pateria                       T.O.

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

14.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

15.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

P.I.B.

16.        Shri A.M. Thomas                      S. M&C. Officer

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

17.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

18.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director

N.C.F.C.

19.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Food& PD, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.