F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 06^th September, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 01.09.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 01.09.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES and Dr. S.M. Jharwal, Pr. Adviser, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture.    A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 01^st September 2006 , is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                                                                                                                   Jitender Kumar)

                   Addl. S.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

 Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole:

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September), the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

 (ii)  Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall are as given below:

   Region                                      Rainfall

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India :                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

 Rainfall during the week ending on  01^st September, 2006

 ·        Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls occurred over many parts of Eastern India including Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and adjoining sub-divisions of Central India during most days of the week and over Bihar on a few days.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Western Himalayan regions during first half of the week.

·        The rainfall has been subdued over most sub-divisions of remaining parts of the country.

·        Amount of rainfall (cm) received during 31^st Aug, 06– 01^stSept, 06 (24 hours) was Bhopal-21 cm, Guna-12 cm, Kota, Bundi and Chambal-10 cm each, Hoshangabad & Hut Bay-8 cm each, Jhalawar & Sagar-7 cm each, Bihar, Katra, Port Blair,  Sawai Madhopur  and  Indore –

5 cm each.

  Table-1: Met Sub-Divisions having deficient rainfall (>26%) (upto 31^st Aug. 2006 )

All India area weighted rainfall for the week (24^th August -  30^th August, 2006 ) was below normal by 24% (Actual 38.7 mm, Normal 50.7  mm).

Rainfall was[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 15 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  30^th August, 2006 )

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 2% (Actual 699.1 mm  Normal 710.9 mm).

Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 05 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 18 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-2: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st June to  30^th Aug., 06  in four regions of the country [2]

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast and Advisories for the next week by NCMRWF (01^st  – 08^th September, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected over the entire region except Punjab and West U.P. where scattered rains are likely during 01^st   – 02^ndSeptember , 2006 and isolated rainfall over the rest of the period.  Hilly regions of NW India viz. J&K, H.P. and Uttranachal are likely to receive scattered rains during 4^th-5^th September, 06.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

• Scattered rainfall is likely over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand on 01^st   September, 06.  Bihar , East UP and NE States are likely to experience scattered rainfall during 01^st to 05^th Sept. 06.  Coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal may experience enhanced rainfall up to fairly widespread from 03^rd Sep, 06.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rains are likely over Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh on 01^st – 02^nd Sept, 06 and reduced thereafter.  Fairly widespread rains is expected over Vidarbha during 01^st – 02^nd Sept, 06,  thereafter rainfall activity may reduce.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to experience scattered rainfall  during 01^st  Sept, 06.  Rainfall activities over Telangana and Karnataka are likely to increase after 24 hours.  Kerala is likely to experience scattered rains.  Coastal AP may receive enhanced rains from 4^th Sep, 06.  Isolated rainfall is likely over Rayalseema and Tamil Nadu during 01^st to 05^th Sept. 06.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Konkan & Goa in 02^nd – 03^rd Sept, 06 and reduce thereafter.  Scattered rainfall over Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra is likely to increase on 01^st  –02^nd Sept, 2006.  Rainfall activity over Rajasthan and Gujarat may increase from during 2^nd – 4^th Sep, 2006.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places with isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) is likely over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan during 01^st –02^nd Sept, 06.  Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places also likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar lslands during 01^st – 03^rd Sept, 06.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        In NW India , farmers advised to withhold irrigation in view of expected scattered to fairly widespread rainfall.  In Gujarat and Rajasthan, where sowing could not be completed or destroyed due to excessive rainfall farmers are advised to take up fodder crops.

·        In Rayalseema region of Andhra Pradesh farmers are advised for contingency crop planning by sowing Pulses, Millets and Sunflower.  As only little rainfall is expected over the region irrigation may be provided to groundnut crop.

·        In Assam where Sali paddy could not be cultivated due to less rainfall, farmers are advised to sow the Black gram and Green gram by selecting varieties like T-9, Pant U-10 and T-44, AAU-39 respectively.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 31.08.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 113.88  BCM from 109.43 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 14.77 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 32.69 BCM.   

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There were 71 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 3 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.  

Horticulture

Table – 4: Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  18.08.2006)

Source: NHB data

      Generally, it is expected that with more market arrival prices would fall.  In the other words, inverse relationship exists between arrivals and prices.  However, from the above table it can be seen that during the given period of 2006 this phenomenon was observed in the case of Tomato only.  Also, comparing the prices and arrivals during the corresponding weeks in the years 2004 and 2005, it was observed that the inverse relationship between arrivals and prices is observed in the case of Potato and Tomato only.

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 19.08.2006 declined by 0.02 percentage points to 4.91% from the previous week’s level of 4.93%. The inflation rate for the Agriculture Commodities rose by 0.67% over the week. For foodgrains it rose by 0.60% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.06%), Wheat by (1.62%), Bajra by (0.72%), Maize by (0.66%), Barley by (0.28%), Gram by (1.25%), Urad by (0.43%) and Arhar by (0.40%). The WPI of other food items declined: Moong (0.17%) and Masur by (0.04%). The inflation rate was 3.71% during the corresponding period last year.  

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta, Sugar, Mustard oil, Milk, Vanaspati, Potato and Tea (Loose) remained at the same level as they were last week . Rise in prices was noted in Gram dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.9%) and Groundnut oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.1%), Tomato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.6%) and Tur dal (50 paise per kg, 1.5%). Fall in prices was noted in  Onion (50 paise per kg, -5.0%).

As compared to the last year, price of Tomato and Brinjal have remained steady. Increase in prices of Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.50 per kg, 46.7%),  Gram Dal (Rs. 10.00 per kg, 40.0%), Wheat ((Rs. 2.00 per kg, 22.2%), Atta (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 15.8%), Vanaspati (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 14.6%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 8.5%), %), Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Milk (Re.1.00 per kg, 6.7), Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.0%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 4.50 per kg, 4.5%), and Tur dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 3.0%) and decrease in prices of   Onion (Rs. 4.50 per kg, -32.2%) is noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 15^th August, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

 Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.  

Locust Situation in India :

Desert Locust (Schistocerca gregaria. F)

No desert locust activity has been reported during the surveys conducted in the Scheduled Desert Area of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Small scale locust breeding is expected during September, 06 in Jaisalmer, Barmer and Jodhpur districts of Rajasthan.  Continuous vigilance is required to detect any locust build up.

Migratory Locust (Locusta migratoria)

Control operations against migratory locusts were undertaken over an area of 300 ha already in Loma, Khuril, Mahe Nidder and Tsaga villages of Nyoma sub-division in Changthang Valley of Leh district (Jammu & Kashmir) during 21^st – 24^th Aug, 06.

 Kisan Credit Card:

 Table – 7: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed  

Procurement :

 Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 04.09.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Table – 9:Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 04.09. 06(lakh tonnes)

Table – 10:Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  01.09.2006.

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                         Chairman for first part

Dr. S.M. Jharwal                              Pr. Adviser               Chairman for second part

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr H.C. Gautam                         Addl. Commissioner

2.         Dr. A.K. Bhatia                          Adviser

3.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

I.M.D.

4.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

5.         Dr. J.V. Singh                            P.S.O. (SCD)

C.W.C

6.         Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

7.         Shri S.S. Vema                         Dy. Director

8.         Shri Gautam Chatterjee              Dy. Director

I.C.A.R.

9.         Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

10.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

11.        Shri A.N. Bhattacharjee              Adviser

12.        Shri M. Singh                            A.E.A.

N.C.F.C.

13.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

14.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

15.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, P.I.B., Deptt. of Fertilizer, Central Ground Water Board, Deptt. of Food & PD, Adviser (RCR), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV) & Adviser (TPB) and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group in future