F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                                               Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 29^th September, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  22.09.2006.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 22^nd September 2006 , is enclosed.  The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 22.09.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES, Ministry of Agriculture. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Jitender Kumar)
                   Addl. S.A.
                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)
e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole:

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September), the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall are as given below:

   Region                                      Rainfall

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India :                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Rainfall during the week ending on  22^nd September, 2006

·        During this period widespread rainfall with scattered heavy falls occurred over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.  Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls also occurred over Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep , Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.  Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall also occurred over the remaining parts of the country outside plains of Northwest India where it was isolated.

·        Enhance rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls occurred over Konkan & Goa, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during 20^th –21^st Sept, 2006.

·        On 21^st Sept, 06 Southwest monsoon withdrew from some parts of Punjab and many parts of West Rajasthan .  The withdrawal line passed through Ferozepur, Churu, Jodhpur and Barmer.

Table-1: Met Sub-Divisions having deficient rainfall (>26%) (upto 21^st September, 2006 )

 All India area weighted rainfall for the week (14^th  -  20^th September, 2006) was above normal by 9% (Actual 41.8 mm, Normal 38.4  mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 15 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 05 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  20^th September, 2006 )

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 1% (Actual 834.8 mm  Normal 843.3 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 19 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 11 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-2: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st June to  20^th September, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for the period (22^nd – 28^th September, 2006), by NCMRWF

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        The hilly regions viz. J&K, H.P. and Uttaranchal are likely to receive scattered showers on 23^rd Sept, 06 and then entire region is likely to receive rains during 24^th- 26^th Sept, 06.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

• Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains is likely over Orissa, West Bengal , Jharkhand and Bihar .  Fairly widespread is likely over East UP and NE States on 22^nd – 24^th Sept, 06.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on 22^nd – 24^th Sept, 06.  Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected over Madhya Pradesh on 22^nd – 25^th Sept, 06.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on 22^nd – 24^th Sept, 06 then reduce thereafter.  Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Lakshadweep Islands, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Kerala during 22^nd – 25^th Sept, 06.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Ongoing rainfall over Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra is likely to continue.   Marathawada is likely to receive scattered rainfall activity during 22^nd – 25^th Sept, 06.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Heavy to very heavy falls are likely at a few places over Bihar , West Bengal & Sikkim and Jharkhand.  Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, East Uttar Pradesh, North Orissa , North Chhattisgarh and Northeastern States .

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 21.09.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country.

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 117.90  BCM from 116.89 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 10.79 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 26.28 BCM.

Table – 5: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

            ·         There were 70 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 4 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoir having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Table – 6: Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture

Table – 7: Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  18.08.2006)

Source: NHB data

      Generally, it is expected that with more market arrival prices would fall.  In the other words, inverse relationship exists between arrivals and prices.  However, from the above table it can be seen that during the given period of 2006 this phenomenon was observed in the case of Tomato only.  Also, comparing the prices and arrivals during the corresponding weeks in the years 2004 and 2005, it was observed that the inverse relationship between arrivals and prices is observed in the case of Potato and Tomato.

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 09.09.2006 declined by 0.18 percentage points to 4.61% from the previous week’s level of 4.79%. The inflation rate for the Agriculture Commodities rose by 1.73% over the week. For foodgrains it rose by 0.73% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.22%), Wheat by (0.28%), Jowar by (3.06%), Barley by (0.14%), Ragi by (0.56%), Gram by (2.36%), Arhar by (3.78%), Moong (5.14%) and Urad by (1.05%). The WPI of other food items declined: Bajra by (0.04, Maize by(0.13%) and Sugar by (0.24%). The inflation rate was 4.11% during the corresponding period last year. 

Table – 8: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,  Sugar, Mustard oil,  Vanaspati, Tea (Loose), Milk and Potato remained at the same level as they were last week . Rise in prices was noted in Gram dal (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 8.1%), Tur dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.9%), Groundnut oil (Re. 1.00 per lt, 1.1%) and Onion (50 paise per kg, 5.6%).   Fall in prices was noted in Tomato (50 paise per kg, -2.6%), Brinjal (Re. 1.0 per kg, -7.1%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -9.1%)).

As compared to the last year, price of Potato has remained steady. Increase in prices of Wheat (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 29.4%), Atta (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 26.3%), Rice (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.7%), Tur dal (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 7.7%), Gram Dal (Rs. 15.00 per kg, 60.0%), Tomato (Rs. 8.50 per kg, 85.0%), Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 25.0%), Vanaspati (Rs. 8.00 per lt, 17.0%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 8.4%), %), Mustard oil (Rs. 2.00 per lt, 4.0%) Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.50 per kg, 5.4%) and  Sugar (Rs. 1.00 per kg, 5.0%) and decrease in price of Onion (Rs. 5.00 per kg, -34.5%) and Brinjal (Rs. 3.50 per kg, -21.2%) is noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 9: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 15^th September, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

 Kisan Credit Card:

Table – 10: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed 

Procurement :

Table – 11: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 18.09.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Table – 12:Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 22.09. 06(lakh tonnes)

                            Table - 13:Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  22.09.2006.

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                                                     Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr. H.C. Gautam                        Addl. Commissioner

2.         Dr J.P. Mishra                           Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

3.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

4.         Shri D.K. Roy                            Under Secretary (INM)

5.         Dr. T. Ram                                Asstt. Commissioner (Plant Protection)

6.         Shri Ram Sanehi                        Asstt. Director (Hort)

I.M.D.

7.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

C.W.C.

8.         Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

9.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director

DEPTT. OF FOOD & PD

10.        Shri S.S. Chahal                        S.O.

P.I.B.

11.        Smt. Santha Balakrishnan          JD (Media & Communication)

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

12.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

CENTRAL GROUND WATER BOARD

13.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

14.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

15.        Shri R.C. Ray                            Adviser

16.        Shri T.P. Biswas                        Adviser

N.C.F.C.

17.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

18.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

19.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Science & Technology (NCMRWF), I.C.A.R., Adviser (RCR), Adviser (Horticulture), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV) & and RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.