F. NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 26^th July, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   24.07.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 24.07.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture. A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group  is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  July Rainfall

·        Rainfall in the month of July 2006 for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of its LPA with the model error of ± 9%.

(iii) Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below:

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8% 

Progress of Southwest Monsoon

·        The Southwest monsoon advanced into remaining parts of East Rajasthan and some more parts of West Rajasthan on 20^th July, 2006.  The Northern limit of Monsoon as on 23^rd July, 06 passed through Jalore, Jodhpur and Sri Ganganagar. 

Rainfall during the week ending on  23^rd  July, 2006[1]

·        Rainfall occurred at most places over West Bengal & Sikkim, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh on many days with increased intensity during 2^nd half of the week.  Enhanced rainfall also occurred over Vidarbha on 1 to 2 days of the week.

·        Isolated to scattered rainfall activity occurred over Gujarat, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and East Rajasthan which got enhanced during last 2-3 days of the week with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places.

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity continued over the Northeastern States.

·        Rainfall occurred at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, East Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand; at a few places over West Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.   It remained subdued over Punjab, Haryana and West Rajasthan.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka on many days of the week whereas it remained subdued over rest of the Peninsula except over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana where fairly widespread rains occurred during last two days of the week. 

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (13^th July – 19^th July, 2006) was  below normal by 32% (Actual 45.9 mm, Normal 67.5  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 23 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  19^th July, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 14% (Actual 292.3  mm,  Normal 340.0 mm).   Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 24 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  19^th July, 2006

 FORECAST (0830 HRS. IST OF 24^TH JULY TO 0830 HRS.OF 27^TH JULY, 2006)

·        With the weakening of the low pressure area over Northwest Madhya Pradesh, rainfall activity over Gujarat, East Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra is likely to decrease and remain subdued during next 3 days.

·        Scattered rainfall is likely over Northeastern States, Western Himalayan Region, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and East Madhya Pradesh.

·        Scattered rainfall is also likely over Coastal Karnataka and Kerala while it will remain subdued over rest of  the South Peninsula.

·        Isolated rainfall is likely over Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Interior Maharashtra.  However, numerical model predictions suggest increase in rainfall activity over Western Himalayan Region and Indo-Gangetic plains after 1-2 days.

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (24^th July  -  30^th July, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana during next 48 hrs.

·        Scattered rainfall is expected over West Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal during next 3-4 days.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall are likely over West Bengal, Jharkhand and Orissa during next 3 days then it may increase from 28^th July, 06.
• Scattered rainfall are likely over East U.P., Bihar and NE States during next 3-4 days.  

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during next 3-4 days.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Fairly widespread  rainfall is likely over Kerala and Karnataka, Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 2-3 days.

·        Isolated rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu and Rayalseema during 4-5 days. 

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely to over Konkan & Goa.

·        Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Gujarat and East Rajasthan are likely to receive scattered rainfall during next 3-4 days.

·        Isolated to scattered rainfall is expected over West Rajasthan.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        As good rainfall activity is expected over Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha, farmers are advised to take up transplanting of paddy seedlings.

·        Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is predicted over Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat and East Rajasthan, farmers are advised take up sowing of Groundnut, Soyabean and Pulses like Arhar, Moong and Urd.   Treat the seed with 3 gm Thiram of Captan per kg of seeds before sowing.

·        Light rainfall is predicted over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, NE and NW India, farmers of the region are advised to complete the transplanting of paddy seedlings and also advised to transplant the nursery plants of vegetables like Tomato, Brinjal, Cauliflower etc., during the end of week.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 21.07.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 52.27 BCM from 48.59 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 7.89 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 15.84 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There are 59 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 9 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 3 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There are four reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and one reservoir having nil/negative live storage namely, Gandhi Sagar- Madhya Pradesh.

 Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage) 

(Area in lakh hectares)

Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 08.07.2006 declined by 0.28 percentage points to 4.68% from the previous week’s level of 4.96%. The WPI of agriculture commodities fell by 0.5% over the week on account of decrease in WPI of Wheat (0.1%), Jowar(0.5%), Moong (0.8%), Urad & Gur (0.3%), Masur and Arhar (0.5% each).  But the WPI of foodgrains rose by 0.1% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice (0.2%), Maize (0.6%), Bajra (0.3%), Barley (0.2%) and Gram (0.9%).  The inflation rate was 4.46% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of Essential Commodities at Delhi                          (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week, rise in prices was noted in Tur dal (Re.1.00 per kg, 3.1%), Mustard oil & Vanaspati (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.0% each)Tea (Loose) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 0.9%), Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%), Brinjal (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 10.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 8.50 per kg, 94.4%). Fall in prices was noted in Tomato (Rs. 3.00 per kg, -20.0%).  Prices of Tomato have indicated a declining trend since last week from Rs. 15.00 per kg to Rs. 12.00 per kg.  

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Gram Dal (Rs. 6.00 per kg, 24.0%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%).  Prices of some of the essential commodities have decreased over the last year: Tomato (Rs. 8.00 per kg, -40.0%), Brinjal (Rs.10.00 per kg, -38.5%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.50 per kg, -16.7%). 

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card: 

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

 Fertilizer Position:

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 16^th July, 2006 

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 24.07.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 24.07.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  24.07.2006.

Shri S.M. Desalphine                     Addl. Secretary                               Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri N.B. Singh                          Agri. Commissioner

2.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

3.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

4.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

5.         Shri B.J. Bhatacharaya               D.S. (INM)

6.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer

I.M.D.

7.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

8.         Dr. Ranjeet Singh                       P.S.O.

C.W.C

9.         Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

10.        Dr. S.C. Bansal                         Dy. Director (Ent)

I.C.A.R.

11.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

12.        Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

13.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

14.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

P.I.B.

15.        Smt. Santha Balakrishnan          JD (Media & Communication)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

16.        Shri A.K. Neog                          E.S.A.

17.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

18.        Shri R.C. Ray                            Adviser

19.        Mrs. Madhu Bala                       Adviser

20.        Shri S.M. Mahajan                     A.S.A.

21.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director

N.C.F.C.

22.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

23.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

24.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Deptt. of Food & PD and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.