F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                        Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 19^th December, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  26.12.2006.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 26th December 2006 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                               (Sudha Keshari)

                                    Asst. E.A.

                                      Ph No. 7541

                                 e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.) 

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer,  DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (AKB), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB)

 I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI) 

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

 MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

Director (IMD),

 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA      

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

       Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/   PPS  to  Addl. Secy. (PPM)/   PPS

       to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

               F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

       DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 26.12.2006

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 26.12.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC.  The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.  

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

 Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on  20^th December, 2006

·        A Western Disturbance affected Western Himalayan region on 14^th Dec, 06 and moved away Eastwards thereafter.

·        A cyclonic circulation at lower tropospheric levels lay over Bangladesh and neighbourhood during 17^th – 18^th Dec, 06 and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and neighbourhood on 19^th Dec, 06.

·        A weak Easterly wave affected Nicobar Islands , Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Lakshadweep during the week.

·        Scattered rain / thundershower occurred over Nicobar Islands during 14^th –15^th  & 17^th December, 06 and over Lakshadweep Islands on 14^th Dec, 06.   Isolated rain / thundershowers also occurred over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry on 14^th Dec, 06.

·        Isolated rain/thundershowers occurred over Northeastern States during 18^th and 19^th Dec, 06.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over remaining parts of the country during the week.  

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (14^th  – 20^th December, 06) was below normal by 96% (Actual 0.1 mm  Normal 3.7 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:  

Ø        Normal rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 04 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 29out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  October  to  20^th December, 2006 )

         ·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Post-Monsoon season was below normal by 17% (Actual 98.3 mm  Normal 119.1 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

            Ø        Excess rainfall in 05 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 12 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

       Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st October to  20^th  December, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

       Temperature:

·        The minimum temperatures were above normal  2^oC-3^oC over Rajasthan on 14^th Dec, 06.  Above normal night temperature conditions extended to Gujarat and adjoining Madhya Pradesh during 15^th – 16^th Dec, 06.  It was above normal by  2^oC-3^oC over above regions and adjoining plains of Northwest India on 17^th Dec, 06.  Subsequently, it was above normal by 2^oC-3^oC only over Gujarat and Rajasthan on 18^th Dec, 06 and become normal afterwards over most  parts of West and Northwest India .

·        It was above normal by 1^oC - 2^oC over East India on 14^th & 15^th Dec, 06  and over many parts of East India excluding West Bengal on 16^th December, 06.

        ·        The minimum temperature were above normal by 2^oC-3^oC over North Peninsula on 14^th Dec, 06.  It was below normal by 1^oC - 2^oC over               some parts of Peninsula on 15^th & 16^th December, 06 and by 2^oC-3^oC over many parts of Peninsula during 17^th – 20^th  December, 06.

         ·        The night temperatures were above normal by 2^oC-4^oC over many parts of Northeastern States and West Bengal & Sikkim during 17^th –                   20^th Dec, 06.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (26^th –  31^st December, 2006), by IMD and NCMRWF

 Outlook for the Week Ending on December 27^th 2006

·        A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to affect Western Himalayan region during second half of the week.

·        Rise in night temperature by 2^oC-3^oC over plains of Northwest India and Gangetic plains during middle of the week and fall towards the end of the week.

·        Subdued rainfall activity over South Peninsula during second half of the week.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Scattered snowfall / rainfall are likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal and isolated rain / shower is expected over Punjab & Haryana during 26^th –27^th  December, 06. 

·        Night temperatures are likely to fall by about 3-4 deg. C over most parts of Northwest India during 27^th & 30^th  December, 06.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·        Mainly dry weather is expected over the region during next 5 days.

·        Night temperatures are expected to fall over East UP and Bihar during 28^th – 31^st December, 06.

  Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Mainly dry weather is likely over the region during  next 5 days.

·        Night temperatures are expected to fall over Madhya Pradesh and  Chhattisgarh during 28^th – 31^st Dec, 06.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Isolated  rainfall  are likely to occur Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands .

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over rest of the region.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the region.

·        Night temperatures are likely to fall over Rajasthan and Gujarat during 28^th – 31^st December, 06.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 21.12.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 95.23  BCM from 99.57 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 1.23 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 17.33 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·        There were 68 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 5 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·        There was only one reservoir namely Gumti (TRP)having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 17^th December, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

         Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

     Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

       Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 09.12.2006 increased by 0.15 percentage points to 5.32% from the previous week’s level of 5.17%. The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  rose by 0.06% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Jowar by (3.52%).  The inflation rate for the foodgrains fell by 0.28% over the week  due to decline in WPI of Rice by (0.50%), Gram by (1.06%), Arhar by (1.97%), Moong by (1.20%), Urad by (3.69%) and Sugar by (0.37%).  The inflation rate was 4.39% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Wheat, Atta,  Gram dal, Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Tea (Loose) and Milk remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Onion (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 22.2%), Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.1%). Fall in prices was noted in Rice  (50 paise per kg, 3.3%),  Potato (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 17.6%) and Tomato (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 11.5%) .

 As compared to the last year increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 11.5%), Wheat (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 20.0%), Atta (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 18.2%),Gram Dal (Rs. 13.00 per kg, 50.0%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 7.00 per ltr., 13.7%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 9.5%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 19.1%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 6.50 per kg, 6.3%),  Tomato (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 27.8), Onion (50 paise per kg, 4.8%) and Sugar (50 paise per kg, 2.6%) and decrease in prices of Tur dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, -2.9), Potato (Rs. 3.00 per kg,  -30.0%), Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, -8.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.00 per kg, -16.7%),  was observed.  

     Procurement :

         Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 26.12.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON  26.12.2006.

Shri S.M. Desalphine                     Addl. Secretary                                   Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

2.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

3.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer (INM)

4.         Shri Rakesh Agrawal                  Asstt. Director (INM)

C.W.C.

5.         Shri K.M. Hamza                       E.A.D.

P.P.Q & S

6.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

N.C.F.C.

7.        Shri Jitender Kumar                  Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

Note: Representatives from IMD, Deptt. of Science & Technology, Crop Division, Deptt. of Fertilizer, ICAR, Deptt. of Food & PD, Central Ground Water Board, P.I.B., Deptt. of Consumer Affairs , Horticulture Division, RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that 

           they should regularly attend meetings of the group.