F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S 

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)  

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 30^th June, 2006  

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   26.06.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 26.06.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES,  Ministry of Agriculture.A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group  is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.   

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

Rainfall  

Long Range Forecast for 2006  

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 93% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.  

·        Estimates also suggest that the probability for the 2006 South-West monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole  to be deficient (below 90% of LPA) is only 22%.  

Progress of Southwest Monsoon 

·        After a hiatus of about two weeks Southwest monsoon has advanced further into some more parts of Gujarat region & Chhattisgarh, remaining parts of Madhya Maharashtra & Telangana, entire Marathawada and most parts of Vidarbha on 23^rd and 24^th June, 2006. 

·        The Northern limit of monsoon as on 24^th June, 06 passed through Porbander, Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Jalgaon, Amravati, Nagpur, Durg, Ambikapur, Daltonganj and Ruxol. 

Rainfall during the week ending on  25^th June, 2006[1]  

·        Scattered rainfall was experienced along West Coast, Interior Peninsula , Interior Maharashtra, East India and Northeastern States on many days of the week.  

·        Rainfall activity along the West Coast and over South Peninsula got enhanced  during 2^nd half of the week due to revival of monsoon.  Heavy to very heavy rainfall also occurred over Northeastern States , Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep .  

·        Isolated to scattered pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity accompanied with isolated squall  was also experienced over central and Northwest India on some days of the week.  

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (15^th  June to 21^st June, 2006) was  below normal by 51% (Actual 19.0 mm , Normal 39.0  mm). Rainfall was:  

Ø        Excess / normal in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 26 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  21^st June, 2006)  

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 24% (Actual 71.9  mm,  Normal 94.9 mm ).   Rainfall was:  

Ø        Excess / Normal in 17 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 19 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2]  

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  21^st June, 2006

FORECAST BY IMD (0830 HRS. IST OF  26^th  June 2006, TO 0830 HRS. IST OF  29^th JUNE, 2006)  

·        Under the influence of the off-shore trough, enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls is likely to continue along the West Coast.  

·        Rain / thundershowers likely at many places with isolated heavy rains over Northeastern States.  

·        Scattered light to moderate rains likely over Interior Peninsula and East India .  

·        Pre-monsoon thundershowers activity also likely over central & Northwest India .  

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (26^th June - 02^nd July, 2006)  

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Isolated rain/snowfall is likley over J&K and H.P. during next 48 Hrs. Plains of NW India viz. Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P. may continue to receive isolated rains/thundershower during next 4-5 days.   

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Scattered to fairly widespread rains / thundershowers with isolated heavy rains are likely over Sub Himalayan West Bengal and NE States.   Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over rest areas of the region during next 2-3 days. Subsequently East Uttar Pradesh may experience increase in rains.
• Fairly widespread to widespread with isolated heavy rains are expected over Orissa, West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand during next 4-5 days.   

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Vidarbha, Chattisgarh and east M.P. are likely to  receive fairly wide spread rains during 3-4 days.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Andman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during next 3-4 days.

·        Tamilnadu  is likely to receive scattered rainfall during next 4-5 days.   

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)  

·        Fairly wide spread with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan & Goa. Madhya Maharshtra, Marathwada and south Gujarat are likely to receive scattered to fairly wide spread rainfall during next 2-3 days.

·        Rest of the regions  are likely to experience mainly dry weather during this period.    

Heavy Rainfall Warning:  

·        Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, south Gujarat during next 2-3 days and  subsequently over Coastal Orissa and West Bengal.  

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 23.06.2006)  

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having their Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country.   

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 28.61 BCM from 30.43 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 14.56 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 9.38 BCM.  

For 76 major reservoirs of the country  

         ·         There are 55 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 10 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 3 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage. 

·         There are five reservoirs having storage under 30% of normal storage and three reservoirs having nil/negative live storage namely, Sriram Sagar – AP, Gandhi Sagar – Madhya Pradesh and Mula– Maharashtra.

 Crop Condition (Kharif 2006-07)

Summary of progress of Kharif crop (area coverage)  

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture  

Area sown, Production and Average Wholesale Prices of Horticulture Commodities during the week ending 09.06.2006 in Delhi Market 

P:-  Market Price in Rs. / (Qtl.).    Source:NHB

A:- Arrival in Tonnes.
Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)  

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 10.06.2006 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 5.24% from the previous week’s level of 4.72% on account of increase in almost all commodities over the week mainly Wheat (0.9%), Jowar (7.1%), Ragi (0.3%), Arhar (3.3%), Gram (1.6%), Moong (0.7%) and Sugar (0.7%). The inflation rate was 4.50% during the corresponding period last year.        

Retail prices of essential commodities at Delhi                                                                                                          (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi  

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week,  rise in prices was noted in Gram dal (50 paise per kg, 1.6%) and Tomato (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 39.1%).   Fall in prices was noted in Tur dal (50 paise per kg, -1.5%) Brinjal (50 paise per kg, -2.8%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, -9.1%)  during the same period.    The reason for increase in the prices of Tomato is due to less arrival and damage to Tomato crop by heavy rains.  

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Tomato (Rs. 26.00 per kg, 433.3%), Potato (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 37.5%), Gram Dal (Rs. 8.50 per kg, 37.0%), Brinjal (Rs.2.50 per kg, 16.7%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Sugar (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 15.8%).  

Pest & Diseases:  

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops  

Kisan Credit Card:  

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

 Fertilizer Position:  

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 15^th June, 2006                                                                                                 (in ‘000 Tonnes)

 Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 26.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)     

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)  

             Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.  

Annexure  

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  26.06.2006.  

Shri A.K. Neog                                E.S.A.                                     Chairman  

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri A. K. Bhatia                        Adviser (Hort.)

2.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

3.         Smt. Lity Mitra                           Dy. Commissioner (Hort)

4.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          Dy. Commissioner (Seeds)

5.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner                 

6.         Smt. A. Lakshman                     Director (Extn)

7.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer  

I.M.D.

8.         Shri B.K. Bandyopadhyay           Director  

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

9.         Shri J.V. Singh                          P.S.O.  

C.W.C

10.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director  

P.P.Q & S

11.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)  

I.C.A.R.

12.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

13.        Dr. D.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist  

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

14.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’  

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

15.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)  

P.I.B.

16.        Shri A.M. Thomas                      S. M&C. Officer  

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

17.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

18.        Shri D.K. Tiwari                          Dy Director  

N.C.F.C.

19.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

20.      Shri. P.S. Meena                         Dy. E.A.

21.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Food & PD, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that their representative should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.