F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                        Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 04th January, 2007

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  29.12.2006.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 29th December 2006 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                               (Sudha Keshari)

                                    Asst. E.A.

                                     Ph No. 7541

                                 e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.) 

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer,  DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (AKB), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB)

 I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI) 

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

 MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

Director (IMD),

 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA      

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

       Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/   PPS  to  Addl. Secy. (PPM)/   PPS

       to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

              F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 29.12.2006

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 29.12.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC.  The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

    Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on  27^th December, 2006

·        Scattered snowfall activity was experienced over Jammu & Kashmir on 21^st & 22^nd Dec, 06 and mainly dry weather prevailed thereafter till 25^th Dec, 06.  Scattered snowfall activity was again experienced over Jammu & Kashmir during 26^th – 27^th Dec, 06.  Light to moderate rain / snowfall activity was also experienced over Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal during 26^th – 27^th Dec, 06.  Rain / thundershower occurred at a few places over Punjab , Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and at isolated places over Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh and Northwest Madhya Pradesh on 27^th Dec, 06.  

·        Isolated rainfall activity occurred over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya on 27^th Dec, 06.

            ·        Scattered / Isolated rain/thundershowers occurred over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry , South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalseema                       during 21^st – 24^th Dec, 06.  

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country during the week.

 Fog

             ·        Fog conditions prevailed over some parts of Indo-Gangetic plains during 21^st – 24^th Dec and on 27^th Dec, 06.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (21^st  – 27^th December, 06) was below normal by 55% (Actual 1.8 mm  Normal 4.1 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Normal rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 21 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  October  to  27^th December, 2006 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Post-Monsoon season was below normal by 19% (Actual 99.8 mm  Normal 123.2 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

 Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st October to  27^th  December, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

    Table – 2: Table below gives the cumulative Post-Monsoon Season rainfall status this year as well as previous  five years:

 Temperature:

·        The minimum temperature was above normal  2^oC-5^oC over plains of Northwest India during 21^st – 23^rd Dec, 06.  The temperature decreased to become below normal by   1^oC-3^oC on 24^th Dec, 06.  There was increasing trend afterwards with temperatures becoming normal on 25^th & 26^th Dec, 06  and  above normal by 2^oC-3^oC on 27^th Dec, 06.

·        It was above normal by 2^oC - 3^oC over Eastern India during  21^st – 23^rd  Dec, 06.  Decreasing afterwards, it was normal during 24^th – 25^th Dec, 06 and below normal by 2^oC-3^oC on 26^th Dec, 06.  The temperature increased again and became normal on 27^th Dec, 06.

        ·        The minimum temperature was normal over Peninsula and above normal by 2^oC-5^oC over Northeastern States during the week.

·        The minimum temperature was normal over Central India during first two days of the week.  While it was normal over Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha, it was above normal by 2^oC-4^oC over Madhya Pradesh during the remaining days of the week.

       ·        The night temperature was  above normal by 2^oC - 5^oC over Gujarat and Rajasthan during 21^st – 25^th Dec, 06 and on 27^th Dec, 06.  It was                above normal by 6^oC-8^oC over West Rajasthan and by 4^oC-5^oC over East Rajasthan and Gujarat on 26^th Dec, 06.  It was above  normal by             2^oC-5^oC  over North Maharashtra during 24^th – 25^th Dec, 06.  The minimum temperature was normal on most days of the week over the                 remaining parts of West India during the week.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (29^th December, 06  -  4^th January, 2007 ), by IMD and NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 03^rd January, 2007

·        A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to effect Western Himalayan region from 31^st December, 06.

·        Rise in night temperature over plains of Northwest India for 2-3 days commencing from 30^th December, 06.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

• Night temperature are likely to fall by about  1-2 °C over most  parts of northwest India during next 3 days then rise from 31 December, 06.
• Isolated to scattered snow/rainfall is likely over J&K , H.P. and Uttaranchal during 1-2 January,07.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

• Isolated rain/thundershower is expected over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam during next 24hrs.
• Mainly dry weather is expected over rest of the region during next 5 days.
• Night temperatures are expected to fall over East U.P and Bihar during 3 days.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

• Mainly dry weather is likely over the region during next 5 days.
• Night temperatures are expected to fall by about 1-2 degree C over Madhya Pradesh  and Chhattisgarh during next 3 days.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Isolated rainfall are likely to occur over  Nicobar Islands.

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over rest of the region .

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

• Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the region .
• Night temperatures are likely to fall over Rajasthan  and Gujarat during 29^th to 31^st Dec, 06.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 28.12.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 92.32  BCM from 95.23 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 1.03 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 16.17 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·        There were 67 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 5 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 3  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·        There was only one reservoir namely Gumti (TRP)having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

    Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 25^th December, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

     Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

         Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

        Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 16.12.2006 increased by 0.11 percentage points to 5.43% from the previous week’s level of 5.32%. The inflation rate for the foodgrains  rose by 0.57% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.06%),  Wheat by (1.17%), Jowar by (0.65%), Bajra by (3.17%), Barley by (1.22%), Arhar by (1.12%), Moong by (0.30%) and Urad by (0.43%)  .  The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  fell by 0.13% over the week  due to decline in WPI of Gram by (0.34%).   The inflation rate of Sugar fell by (0.98%).  The inflation rate was 4.61% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,   Tur dal,  Groundnut oil, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Tea (Loose), Milk, Onion and Brinjal remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Tomato (50 paise per kg, 4.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 13.3%). Fall in prices was noted in Gram dal  (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.6%),  Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.0%) and Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, 14.3%) .

 As compared to the last year price of Tur dal remained steady.   Increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 11.5%), Wheat (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 20.0%), Atta (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 18.2%),Gram Dal (Rs. 11.00 per kg, 40.7%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 7.00 per ltr., 13.7%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 8.00 per lt, 9.5%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 6.00 per kg, 5.8%) and  Onion (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (50 paise per kg, -2.6) and Potato (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -25.0) was observed.  

        Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 29.12.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON  29.12.2006.

Shri S.M. Desalphine                     Addl. Secretary                                   Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr. A.K. Bhatia                          Adviser (Hort.)

2.         Shri R.N. Verma                        Asstt. Commissioner (Crops)

3.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

4.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

5.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer (INM)

6.         Shri Partibha Ahuja                    S.O. (Horticulture)

 I.M.D.

7.         Shri M. Mohapatra                     Director

C.W.C.

8.         Shri S.K. Sinha                          A.D.

 P.P.Q & S

9.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

10.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

DEPTT. OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS

11.        Smt. Indrani Kaushal                  Deputy Director

12.        Shri R.K. Singh                          Sr. Statistical Officer

N.C.F.C.

13.      Shri Jitender Kumar                  Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

14.      Shri P.S. Meena                       Dy. E.A.

15.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                  Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Science & Technology, Crop Division, Deptt. of Fertilizer, Deptt. of Food & PD, Central Ground Water Board, P.I.B. and  RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.