F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                                             Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 06^th October, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  29.09.2006.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 29^th September 2006 , is enclosed. The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 29.09.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri Vijay Kumar, Adviser, DES, Ministry of Agriculture. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

(Jitender Kumar)
                   Addl. S.A.
                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)
e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006

Operational Forecast for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole:

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September), the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall are as given below:

   Region                                      Rainfall

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Rainfall during the week ending on  29^th  September, 2006

·        The monsoon was active/vigorous with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Orissa and Chhattisgarh on first two days, over Gangetic West Bengal during 21-24^th  Sept 06, over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Jharkhand during 21-25^th Sept, 06 and over Bihar during 22-26^th Sept, 06. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also occurred over Gangetic West Bengal and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 25^th & 26^th Sept, 06 respectively.

·        The monsoon was active/vigorous with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura during 22-23^rd Sept, and over Assam & Meghalaya on 22^nd Sept, 06. Fairaly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls also occurred over Assam & Meghalaya on 23^rd Sept, 06 and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura on 25^th Sept, 06.

·        The monsoon was active on a few days over Kerala and on one day each over Coastal Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka, Telangana and Tamil Nadu during the week. However, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls occurred over Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during most days of the week and over Konkan & Goa during first half of the week.

·     All India area weighted rainfall for the week (21^st  -  27^th September, 2006) was above normal by 12% (Actual 40.6 mm, Normal 36.4  mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  27^th September, 2006)

·        All India area weighted cumulative rainfall for the Monsoon season was normal with 0% departure (Actual 878.6 mm  Normal 879.8 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 06 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 20 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st June to  27^th September, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for the period (29^th  September  - 05^th October, 2006), by IMD and  NCMRWF

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over hilly regions viz. J&K, H.P. and Uttaranchal during 1^st – 02^nd October, 06.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Widespread rainfall is expected over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal during 29^th –30^th Sept, 06.  Fairly widespread over Jharkhand and scattered rainfall is likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura.  Isolated rainfall over the rest region.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Isolated rainfall is likely over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and East MP during 29^th Sept, 06.  Increase in rainfall activity over Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha from 30^th Sept, 06.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Widespread rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Coastal AP and Vidarbha during 29^th Sept – 01^st October, 06.  Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Karnataka, Rayalseema and Tamil Nadu during 29^th Sept – 02^nd October, 06.  Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is expected over Kerala from 29^th Sept – 01^st October, 06 and subsequently to increase.

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Isolated to scattered rainfall is expected over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra.  Gujarat and Rajasthan are likely to be dry for 29^th Sept to 01^st October, 06.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Heavy to very heavy falls at a few places are likely over Orissa, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Telangana.  Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over Gangetic West Bengal and Chhattisgarh during 30^th September, 2006.  Squally winds with speed raching 50-60 kmph are also likely along and off West Bengal, Orissa and North Andhra Pradesh Coasts during 30^th Sept, 06.  The sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off West Bengal, Orissa and North Andhra Pradesh coasts.   The fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 28.09.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 120.45  BCM from 117.90 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 12.39 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 26.77 BCM.

Table – 2: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

            ·         There were 72 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 3 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and one reservoir having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Table – 3: Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

      Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 16.09.2006 declined by 0.05 percentage points to 4.56% from the previous week’s level of 4.61%. The inflation rate for the foodgrains rose by 0.10% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.17%), Wheat by (0.14%), Barley by (2.93%), Ragi by (1.56%), Gram by (1.73%), Arhar by (0.21%), Moong by (1.00%) and Masur by (0.52%). The inflation rate for the Agriculture Commodities fell by 0.48%.  The WPI of food items declined: Jowar by (0.89%), Bajra by (2.38%), Maize by(0.67%), Urad by (0.89%) and Sugar by (0.18%).

Table – 4: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Wheat, Atta,  Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil, Mustard oil, Milk and Onion remained at the same level as they were last week .  Rise in prices was noted in Rice (50 Paise per kg, 0.5%), Tea (Loose) (50 paise per kg, 0.5%), Gram dal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 2.5%), Vanaspati (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.8%), Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%), Potato (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 12.5%)  and Tomato (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 13.5%).   Fall in prices was noted in Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, -7.7%).

As compared to the last year, price of Mustard oil has remained steady. Increase in prices of Atta (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 26.3%), Wheat (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 22.2%), Rice (Re. 1.50 per kg, 11.5%), Gram Dal (Rs. 15.00 per kg, 57.7%), Tur dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 6.1%), Tomato (Rs. 10.00 per kg, 90.9%), Potato (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 22.7%), Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 19.1%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 8.00 per kg, 9.8%), %), Milk (Rs.2.00 per lt, 13.3%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.00 per kg, 4.9%) and  Sugar (Rs. 1.00 per kg, 5.0%) and decrease in price of Brinjal (Rs. 7.00 per kg, -36.8%) and   Onion (Rs. 5.50 per kg, -36.7%) is noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 5: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 15^th September, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

 Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card:

Table – 6: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed  

Procurement :

Table – 7: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 03.10.2006 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution. 

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  29.09.2006.

Shri Vijay Kumar                            Adviser                                                  Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr. H.C. Gautam                        Addl. Commissioner (Crops)

2.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          Dy. Commissioner (Seeds)

3.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

I.M.D.

4.         Shri M. Mohapatra                     Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / NCMRWF

5.         Dr. Ranjeet Singh                       P.S.O.

P.P.Q & S

6.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director

I.C.A.R.

7.         Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

8.         Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

P.I.B.

9.         Sh. A. M. Thomas                      Sr. Media & Communication Officer

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

10.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

11.        Shri M. Singh                            Addl. Eco. Adviser

N.C.F.C.

12.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

13.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

Note: Representatives from HorticultureDivision, Deptt. of Food & PD, Deptt. of consumer Affairs, CWC & and RBI did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.