F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                        Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 9th February, 2007

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 02.02.2007.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 2nd February 2007 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                                (Sudha Keshari)

                                    Asst. E.A.

                                     Ph No. 7541

                                 e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.) 

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer,  DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (SPS), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB), Adviser (PM)

 I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI) 

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

 MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

Director (IMD),

 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA      

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

   Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/   PPS  to  Addl. Secy. (PPM)/   PPS

       to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

 F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 02.02.2007

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 02.02.2007 under the Chairmanship of Dr. S.M. Jharwal, Pr. Adviser, DAC.  The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on  31^st January, 2007

Rainfall

·        Isolated to scattered rain / snowfall  occurred over Jammu & Kashmir during 27^th – 29^th January, 07.

·        Light rain / thundershowers occurred at a few places over Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, plains of Northwest India, West Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Konkan & Goa and Madhya Maharashtra on 30^th and 31^st January, 07 and over Bihar Northeastern States on 31^st January, 07.

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers also occurred over Nicobar Islands , Lakshadweep , Coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala during 27^th – 29^th January, 07.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (25^th   -  31^st January, 07 ) was below normal by 87% (Actual 0.8 mm  Normal 6.4 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 02 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 20 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 14 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  January  to  31^st  January, 2007 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Winter season was below normal by 92% (Actual 1.6 mm  Normal 20.8 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 25 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st January to  31^st  January, 07  in four regions of the country [2]

 Temperature:

Minimum Temperature

·        Night temperature was above normal by 2^oC-5^oC  during 27^th – 31^st January, 07 over North, West and Central India with isolated pockets experiencing night temperatures which was 6^oC-8^oC above normal. 

·        It was above normal by 4^oC-6^oC over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal during 30^th – 31^st January, 07.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (02^nd -  08^th February, 2007), by IMD and NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 07^th February, 2007

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers is likely over Northeastern States during many days of the week and West Bengal & Sikkim during second half of the week.

·        A fresh Western Disturbance is also likely to affect Western Himalayan region during the middle of the week.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Isolated snowfall/rain are likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during 02^nd  -  04^th Feb. 07.  Mainly dry weather is likely over rest of the region. 

·        The night temperature is likely to rise by 2^oC-3^oC during   02^nd  -  04^th Feb. 07.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·         Isolated shower is expected over Sub-Himalayan region  and NE States during 02^nd – 05^th Feb, 07.    Mainly dry weather is likely over rest of the region.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

• Mainly dry weather is likely over the region during next 4-5 days.

·        The night temperature is likely to rise during 02^nd  - 04^th Feb, 07.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the region.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the  region.

·        Night temperature is likely to fall by 2^oC-3^oC over Rajasthan and Gujarat Region.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 01.02.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 75.71  BCM from 79.57 BCM reported last week. The current storage is less than the last year’s position by 0.55 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 15.10 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·        There were 63 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 8 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 2  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·        There were three reservoirs namely Vaigai (TN), Harangi (Karnataka) and Gumti (TRP) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP during    January, 2007

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 20.01.2007 increased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.11% from the previous week’s level of 5.95%.  The inflation rate for the agriculture commodities  rose by 0.36% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.11%), Jowar by (1.13%), Maize by (0.79%), Arhar by (2.19%), Moong by (1.20%) and Masur by (0.84%).  The inflation rate for the foodgrains fell by 0.05% over the week on account of decline in WPI of Wheat by (0.55%), Bajra by (2.48%), Barley by (0.09%), Ragi by (0.61%), Gram by (0.27%), Urad by (0.05%) and Sugar by (0.26%).  The inflation rate was 4.24% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,   Gram dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil, Mustard oil, Vanaspati, Tea (Loose), Milk, Onion and Tomato remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Tur dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 5.9%), Potato ( 50 paise per kg, 8.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (50 paise per kg, 3.7%).  Fall in price was noted in  Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%).

 As compared to the last year increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Atta (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%),Gram Dal (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 33.3%), Tur dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 5.9%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 7.00 per ltr., 14.0%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 34.3%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs. 3.00 per lt, 20.0%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 5.00 per kg, 4.8%), Tomato (Rs.7.00 per kg, 100.0%), Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%)  and  Onion (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 128.6%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -9.5), Potato (50 paise per kg, -7.1), and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -12.5%) was observed.  

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 02.02.2007 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON  02.02.2007.

Dr. S.M. Jharwal                              Pr. Adviser                               Chairman

DTE. OF ECO. & STAT.

1.         Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

2.         Shri S.P. Sharma                       Adviser

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

3.         Shri J.P. Mishra                         Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

5.         Shri C.S. Mathad                       Asstt. Editor (Extn.)

6.         Shri Rakesh Agrawal                  Asstt. Director

I.M.D.

7.         Dr. B.P. Yadav                           Director

DEPTT. OF EARTH & SCIENCE

8.         Dr. Ranjeet Singh                       P.S.O.

C.W.C.

9.         Shri K.M. Hamza                       E.A.D.

CENTRAL GROUND WATER BOARD

10.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

P.P.Q & S

11.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

12.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

13.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director

R.B.I.

14.        Shri Rajan Goyal                        Director

15.        Smt. S. Chinngaihlian                 Research Officer

DEPTT. OF CONSUMER AFFIRS

16.        Smt. Indrani Kaushal                  Dy. Director

N.C.F.C.

17.      Shri Jitender Kumar                   Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

18.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                  Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Food & PD and P.I.B. did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.