F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 03^rd August, 2006

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON   31.07.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 31.07.2006 under the Chairmanship of Shri S.M. Desalphine, Addl. Secretary, DAC, Ministry of Agriculture. A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

 (Sudha Keshari)

                    Asstt. E.A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in   

Rainfall

Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  July Rainfall

·        Rainfall in the month of July 2006 for the country as a whole is likely to be 97% of its LPA with the model error of ± 9%.

(iii) Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall over the four broad homogenous regions are as given below:

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Progress of Southwest Monsoon

·        The Southwest monsoon further advanced into remaining parts of West Rajasthan on 24^th July, 2006 thus covering the entire  country.

Rainfall during the week ending on  30^th July, 2006[1]

·        Fairly widespread rainfall occurred over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, Punjab, East Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh on most days of the week with increased intensity from 26^th to 28^th July, 2006.   Subsequently isolated to scattered rainfall occurred over these areas.

·        Scattered rainfall occurred over Orissa, West Bengal & Sikkim, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh during 1^st half of the week which enhanced during 2^nd half with isolated heavy falls.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall also occurred over Northeastern States from 25^th to 28^th July, 06.  It was scattered during rest days of the week.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall also occurred along the West Coast, Gujarat Region, Madhya Maharashtra during 1^st half of the week.  Subsequently it increased and occurred at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa during 2^nd half of the week.

·        Light to moderate rainfall also occurred over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during 1^st half of the week.  It was scattered to fairly widespread during 2^nd half with isolated heavy falls over Telangana on 27^th July, 06.

·        Scattered rainfall also occurred over remaining parts of the country outside Tamil Nadu where it was isolated, during the entire week.

·         All India weighted rainfall for the week (20^th July – 26^th July, 2006) was  below normal by 13% (Actual 59.4 mm, Normal 68.1  mm). Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / normal in 13 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / Scanty in 23 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st June  to  26^th July, 2006)

·        All India weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was below normal by 14% (Actual 352.1  mm,  Normal 408.1 mm).   Rainfall was:

Ø        Excess / Normal in 22 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient / scanty in 14 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.  

Cumulative Rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country [2] 

 Monsoon Season-2006 (June - September) 1^st June to  26^th July, 2006

FORECAST (0830 HRS. IST OF 31^ST JULY TO 0830 HRS.OF 03^RD AUGUST, 2006)

·        A low pressure area lies over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood.  It is likely to move West-Northwestwards and cause widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls (13-25 cms) over West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra and Southeast Rajasthan during 1^st – 2^nd  August, 06 and decrease thereafter.

·        With a likely formation of a low pressure area over Northwest Bay of Bengal by 1^st August and its concentration into depression, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls is likely over East India during 1^st – 3^rd August, o6.  This will keep the monsoon active over Central India subsequently.

·        Scattered rain / thundershowers are also likely over Western Himalayan region, Northeastern States, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Coastal Karnataka.   It may be isolated over the rest regions of the country.

Zone-wise Medium Range Weather Forecast for the next week by NCMRWF (31^th July  -  06^th August, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Ongoing rainfall over J&K, H.P., Punjab, Haryana and West UP is likely to reduce.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

• Scattered rainfall is likely to continue over West Bengal and NE States during next 24 hrs.  Then it may reduce over NE States.
• Widespread with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand during next 3-4 days.
• East UP and Bihar is likely to receive scattered rainfall.

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains is likely over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during next 2-3 days.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Ongoing rainfall activities over Kerala and Karnataka, Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh is likely to increase.

·        Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu and Rayalseema during 3-4 days. 

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Fairly widespread with isolated heavy falls is likely to continue over Konkan & Goa.

·        Ongoing rainfall over Gujarat region is likely to reduce significantly during next 24 hrs. Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada are also likely to receive fairly widespread  rainfall with isolated heavy falls during next 2-3 days.

·        Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over Gujarat and  East Rajasthan during next 48 hrs.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely is at a few places over Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa (including Mumbai) and Madhya Maharashtra.

·        Isolated heavy falls are also likely over Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, MP and Maharashtra.

Agro-Meteorological Advisories

·        In Central India farmers are advised to complete the sowing of Moong, Urd, Niger and early maturing Rice varieties within this week in vacant fields.  If fields are not in condition for sowing of Rice, farmers may sow by lehi method in case of continuos rain.

·        In Telangana region, taking advantage of rains, crops like Castor, Redgram and Sunflower can be grown as contingent crop in unsown area of the region.  For fast recovery of the crops, farmers are advised to go for top dressing of recommended dose of nitrogen in rainfed crop.

·        Under the prevailing weather situation, farmers of Jodhpur region are advised to sow the Moth bean, Cluster bean, Mung bean and Pearl millet.

·        In Gujarat region, fairly widespread to widespread rain is likely to continue, farmers are advised to make necessary arrangement to draining out the excess water from the field.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 28.07.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission now monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 62.23  BCM from 52.27 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 11.24 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 19.54 BCM.

For 76 major reservoirs of the country

·         There were 61 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 6 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 6 reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There were three reservoirs having live storage under 30% of normal storage namely, Dantiwada – Gujarat,  Gandhi Sagar – MP and Rihand - UP.  There was no reservoir having negative  live storage.

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage) 

(Area in lakh hectares)

Horticulture

Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  28.07.2006) 

Source: NHB data
Price Situation of Essential Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) based annual inflation rate on a point to point basis for the week ending 15.07.2006 declined by 0.16 percentage points to 4.52% from the previous week’s level of 4.68%. The WPI of foodgrain fell by 0.1% over the week on account of decrease in WPI of Maize (1.86%), Bajra (0.27%), Moong (3.37%), Masur (1.92%), Urad (1.56%) and Arhar (0.46%) and Sugar (.35%).  But the WPI of Wheat rose by (0.15%), Rice (0.17%), Jowar(1.45%), Barley (0.14%) and Gram (0.53%). The inflation rate was 4.45% during the corresponding period last year.  

Retail prices of Essential Commodities at Delhi                          (Rs. Per Kg.)

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o       Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o       Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

It is observed that prices of most of the essential commodities remained at the same level as they were last week.   During the week, rise in prices was noted in Tomato (50 paise per kg, 4.2%) and Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 6.3%). Fall in prices was noted in Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 2.50 per kg, -14.3%).

As observed at column 7, prices of some of the essential commodities had increased over the last year : Gram Dal (Rs. 6.00 per kg, 24.0%), Atta (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 15.8%) and Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 11.1%).  Prices of some of the essential commodities have decreased over the last year: Tomato (Rs. 3.50 per kg, -21.9%), Brinjal (Rs.3.00 per kg, --15.0%) and Mustard oil  (Rs. 2.00 per kg, -3.8%). 

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Kisan Credit Card: 

Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed

 Fertilizer Position: 

Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP as on 16^th July, 2006 

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Procurement :

Progressive procurement of Rice as on 31.07.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 31.07.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes) 

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution. 

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  31.07.2006.

Shri S.M. Desalphine                     Addl. Secretary                               Chairman

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Shri N.B. Singh                          Agri. Commissioner

2.         Smt. Suman Kaushik                 Addl. Commissioner (Hort)

3.         Shri H.C. Gautam                      Addl. Commissioner (Crops)

4.         Dr. J.P. Mishra                          Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

5.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

6.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

7.         Shri A. Lakshman                      Director (Extn)

8.         Shri Mitar Sain                           Stat. Officer

I.M.D.

9.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

10.        Shri J.V.  Singh                         P.S.O.

C.W.C

11.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          Asstt. Director

P.P.Q & S

12.        Dr. T. Ram                                Asstt. Commissioner

13.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

14.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

15.        Dr. O.P. Sharma                        Pr. Scientist

CENTRAL GROUN WATER BOARD

16.        Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

17.        Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

18.        Shri A.K. Neog                          E.S.A.

19.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

N.C.F.C.

20.      Shri Jitender Kumar                     Addl. S.A. & Member Secretary

21.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

22.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Deptt. of Food & PD, Adviser (RCR), Adviser (MB), Adviser(RV), Adviser(AKB), Adviser (ANB) & Adviser (TPB) and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group in future.