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 F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

 

                                                                    Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi

Dated, the 13th September, 2006

 

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  08.09.2006.

The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 08.09.2006 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES, Ministry of Agriculture. A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 08th  September 2006, is enclosed.  This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                (Sudha Keshari)

                   Asstt. E..A.

                 Ph No. 23382016 (4145)

e-mail – ncfc@nic.in

 

Rainfall

 Long Range Forecast for 2006 by IMD (Updated on 30.06.2006)

 Operational Forecasts for 2006  South-West Monsoon Season   (June- September) Rainfall over the country as a whole:

(i)   South-West Monsoon Season Rainfall

·        As per IMD’s operational Long Range Forecast for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season (June-September), the rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4 %.

(ii)  Rainfall over four homogeneous regions

·        Forecasts for the 2006 South-West Monsoon Season rainfall are as given below:

 

   Region                                      Rainfall

Northwest India :                      91% of LPA ± 8%

Central India:                            90% of LPA ± 8%

South Peninsula :                       97% of LPA ± 8 %

Northeast India :                       94% of LPA ± 8%

Rainfall during the week ending on  08th September, 2006

·        Widespread/fairly widespread rainfall with scattered/isolated heavy to very heavy falls occurred over Central India (Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha) on 31st Aug, 06 over Madhya Pradesh on 1st Sept, 06 and over West Madhya Pradesh on 2nd Sept, 06.  The monsoon was vigorous/active over West Madhya Pradesh during 31st Aug-2nd Sept, 06 over East Madhya Pradesh during 31st Aug – 1st Sept, 06 and over Vidarbha on 31st Aug, 06.   The enhance rainfall activity was again realised over central India with widespread/fairly widespread rainfall along with isolated heavy falls during last two days of the week.  The monsoon was again active over Chhattisgarh and West Madhya Pradesh on 5th & 6th Sept, 06 respectively.

·        The rainfall over East India was subdued during first half of the week. It increased with widespread rainfall and isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gangetic West Bengal during 3rd –4th Sept, 06 and over Orissa during 4th – 5th Sept, 06.  The monsoon was active/vigorous over Gangetic West Bengal on 3rd Sept, 06 and over Orissa on 4th – 5th Sept, 06.

·        Widespread / fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls occurred over most of the sub-divisions of Northwest India during 31st Aug – 3rd Sept, 06.  The enhanced rainfall activity continued over Jammu & Kashmir on 4th Sept, 06 also.

·        Southwest monsoon was active /vigorous over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry during 3rd – 4th Sept, 06 with fairly widespread/widespread rainfall and isolated heavy to very heavy falls.

·        The rainfall activity was subdued over other parts of the country with isolated /scattered rainfall during many days of the week.

·        Significant amount of rainfall (cm) received during 07th–08th Sept, 06 (24 hours) was Kankrej (Gujarat)-33 cm, Patan (Gujarat)-21 cm, Tharad (Gujarat)-15 cm each, Sidhapur (Gujarat) -10 cm each, Goadpara-9 cm, Deesa – 8 cm, Cherrapunji – 7 cm, Agathi & Jalpaiguri – 5cm each, Nedumabsserry, North Lakhimpur, Kodaikanal, Idar &  Atiramapathinam – 4 cm each.

 

Table-1: Met Sub-Divisions having deficient rainfall (>26%) (upto 07th September, 2006)

 

Met Sub-Divisions

         % Departure

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

- 37

Arunachal Pradesh

- 29

Assam & Meghalaya

- 41

West Uttar Pradesh

- 35

Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi

- 32

Rayalseema

- 27

 All India area weighted rainfall for the week (31st August -  06th September, 2006) was above normal by 10% (Actual 52.6 mm, Normal 47.8  mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 09 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 08 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 10 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1st June  to  06th September, 2006)

·        All India area weighted rainfall for the Monsoon season was normal by 0% (Actual 756.0 mm  Normal 758.6 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 18 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 11 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-2: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1st June to  06th September, 06  in four regions of the country [2]

Region

Actual (in mm)

Normal (in mm)

Deviation (%)

Category

North-West India

535.9

527.5

2

Normal

Central India

1020.5

856.2

19

Normal

South Peninsular India

510.7

590.4

-13

Normal

North-East India

924.2

1205.4

-23

Deficient

Country as a whole

756.0

758.6

0

Normal

 

Zone-wise Weather Forecast for the next  week by IMD and  NCMRWF (08th     14th September, 2006)

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, West UP)

·        Isolated rains are likely over J&K, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal upto 11th September , 2006. For rest of the period, from 11th – 14th Sept, 2006  isolated rains are expected over the region.

East and NE India (East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, NE States)

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Mainly dry weather is expected upto 11th Sept, 06.

 

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep)

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands, TN & Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep; at a few places over South Interior Karnataka and isolated over the rest of the region.

West India (Maharashtra, Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat, Rajasthan)

·        Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few  places over Gujarat region, Kutch & Southwest Rajasthan and isolated over the rest of the region.

Heavy Rainfall Warning:

·        Isolated heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and Northeastern States during 8th – 10th Sept, 06.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 07.09.2006)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs increased to 116.36  BCM from 113.88 BCM reported last week. The current storage is more than the last year’s position by 17.34 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 30.64 BCM.

Table – 5: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

Period

Current Year’s

Storage as % of FRL* 

Current Year’s storage as % of last year

Current year as a % of 10 years average level

Current Week

Last Week

87

86

118

115

136

140

The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 74% on 07/09/2005,  62% on 07/09/2004 and 54%  on 07/09/2003.

*  Live storage as % to Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 Billion Cub. Mts.(BCM)

·         There were 71 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 4 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and one reservoir having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.

·         There was no reservoir having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crop Condition (Kharif 2006)

Table – 6: Summary of progress of Kharif crops (area coverage)

(Area in lakh hectares)

Crop

Normal area

Area Coverage

(as reported on 8th September)

Area Difference in  Important States-this year vs Last year     (absolute,  %)

This Year

Last  Year

Diff.

 

Rice

 

 

 

 

Total Coarse

Cereals

of which

 

 

Jowar

 

 

Maize

 

 

 

Bajra

 

 

Sugarcane

 

 

Cotton

 

382

 

 

 

 

229

 

 

 

 

44

 

 

62

 

 

 

94

 

 

42

 

 

83

 

348.55

 

 

 

 

203.99

 

 

 

 

35.26

 

 

71.82

 

 

 

79.73

 

 

44.45

 

 

86.95

 

346.19

 

 

 

 

217.99

 

 

 

 

36.90

 

 

67.26

 

 

 

93.43

 

 

42.80

 

 

83.64

 

+2.36

 

 

 

 

-14.00

 

 

 

 

-1.64

 

 

+4.56

 

 

 

-13.70

 

 

+1.65

 

 

+3.31

 

AP (+1.7, 10.0), Ass (-1.8, -9.4), Bih (+1.1, +3.7),

Chhatt (+0.8, +2.2), Guj (+0.4, +7.6),  Jhar (+2.3, +17.9), Maha(-0.8, -5.2), Pun (-0.7, -2.7), TN (+1.7, +83.6),

UP (+0.6, +1.0), WB (-3.0, -6.8)

 

AP (-1.2, -13.4), Bih (+0.9, +31.0), Chhatt (+0.7, +37.6), Jhar (+0.5, +22.8), Kar (-4.7, -19.7) ,  MP (+1.0, +5.4), Maha (-2.0, -5.6), Ori (+2.4, +146.9), Raj(-13.9, -21.2),

 UP (+2.1, +10.9)

 

Har (+0.3, +36.4), Maha (-1.4, -9.1), Raj (-0.6, -9.5),

TN (-0.6, -36.3), UP (+0.5, +22.5)

 

AP (-0.9, -3.0), Bih (+0.8, 31.0), Chat (+0.7, +69.7),

Jhar (+0.5, +25.8), MP (+0.5, +5.9),  Maha (-0.3, -5.5), Ori (+1.3, +206.5), UP (+1.5, +18.5)

 

Kar (-0.5, -11.8), Maha (-0.3, -2.2), Raj (-13.0, -26.2)

 

 

Bih (+0.2, +8.7), Kar (-0.9, -29.1), Maha (+0.2, +4.0), Pun (+0.3, +30.2), TN (+1.1, +45.1), UP (+0.5,+2.6)

 

AP (-0.4, -4.3), Guj (+3.3, +16.0) , Har (-0.6, -10.3), Maha (+2.1, +7.2),  MP (-0.3, -5.3), Pun (+0.6, +11.0), Raj (-1.5, -32.8)

 

 

 Total Kharif Oilseeds

of which

 

Groundnut

 

 

Soyabean

 

 

Sunflower

 

Sesamum

 

 

Castor

 

154

 

 

 

55

 

 

66

 

 

5

 

15

 

 

8

 

159.65

 

 

 

46.42

 

 

80.15

 

 

8.19

 

16.27

 

 

6.36

 

170.30

 

 

 

54.95

 

 

77.57

 

 

8.15

 

16.98

 

 

9.47

 

-10.65

 

 

 

-8.53

 

 

+2.58

 

 

+0.04

 

-0.71

 

 

-3.11

 

AP (-6.7, -30.0), Chhatt (-0.9, -28.9), Guj (-3.0, –11.6),

Kar (-2.3, -13.6), MP (+4.4, +9.4), Raj (-1.7, -10.2),

 TN (-0.6, -16.9), UP(+0.3, +11.3)

 

AP (-4.7, -30.8),  Guj (-1.6, -8.6), Kar (-2.3 –28.4),

Maha (+0.2, +7.2), TN(-0.3, -11.1)

 

AP (-0.3, -22.5),  MP (+3.3, +7.7), Raj (-0.7, -9.6)

 

 

AP (+0.1, +13.7), Maha (-0.1, -7.1)

 

Guj (-0.6,  -14.1), Maha (-0.2, -18.9), MP (+0.9, +52.6), Raj (-0.6, -14.3), TN (-0.2, -34.3)

 

AP (-1.7, -44.7), Guj (-1.0, -32.5), Raj (-0.2, -11.9)

 

 

Total Kharif Pulses

of which

 

 

Arhar (Tur)

 

109

 

 

 

 

35

 

108.67

 

 

 

 

35.14

 

108.40

 

 

 

 

37.23

 

+0.27

 

 

 

 

-2.09

 

 AP (-2.2, -24.9), Guj (+0.7, +12.0), Jhar (+0.6, +32.5), Kar  (+0.9, +8.1), MP (+1.4, +15.0), Maha (+1.8, +8.5), Raj (-3.0, -11.8), TN (-0.3, -25.2),

 

 

AP (-1.8, -34.9), Bih (+0.2, +17.0), Guj (-0.2, -7.7),

 MP (+0.2, +6.7), Maha (-0.4, -3.3)

 

All Crops

 

 

998

 

952.26

 

969.32

 

-17.06

 

 

 

Horticulture

Table – 7: Market Trend of Selected Vegetables -  (Week ending  18.08.2006)

 

 

Wholesale Price (Rs. / Qtl.)

Av. Modal Price

Crop

2004

(Same Week)

2005

(Same Week)

 

2006

(Pre Month)

2006

(Last Week)

2006

(This Week)

Onion-Price

 

Arrival (MT)

568

 

19865

857

 

23948

477

 

22444

516

 

17615

518

 

18858

 

Potato-Price

 

Arrival (MT)

697

 

22134

570

 

25327

772

 

15842

748

 

16410

718

 

15644

 

Tomato-Price

 

Arrival (MT)

1249

 

8842

974

 

10847

547

 

7998

663

 

7104

739

 

5700

 

Source: NHB data

 

      Generally, it is expected that with more market arrival prices would fall.  In the other words, inverse relationship exists between arrivals and prices.  However, from the above table it can be seen that during the given period of 2006 this phenomenon was observed in the case of Tomato only.  Also, comparing the prices and arrivals during the corresponding weeks in the years 2004 and 2005, it was observed that the inverse relationship between arrivals and prices is observed in the case of Potato and Tomato.

 

 

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities (Department of Consumer Affairs)

Inflation

      The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale  Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 26.08.2006 increased by 0.10 percentage points to 5.01% from the previous week’s level of 4.91%. The inflation rate for the Agriculture Commodities rose by 0.40% over the week. For foodgrains it rose by 1.20% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Rice by (0.11%), Wheat by (2.75%), Bajra by (3.71%), Maize by (3.41%), Jowar by (0.55%), Ragi by (0.36%), Gram by (3.54%), and Arhar by (2.16%). The WPI of other food items declined: Barley by (0.37%), Moong (2.19%), Masur by (0.76%), Urad by (0.48%) and Sugar by (0.41%). The inflation rate was 3.33% during the corresponding period last year.  

Table – 8: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Items

Current price 07.09.06

1 week ago

01.09.06

Fortnight ago

25.08.06

1 month ago

07.08.06

1 year ago

07.09.05

% Variation 07.09.06 over 07.09.05

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

Rice

14.00

14.00

14.00

14.00

13.00

7.7

Wheat

11.00

11.00

11.00

10.00

8.50

29.4

Atta

12.00

12.00

12.00

11.00

9.50

26.3

Gram Dal

35.00

35.00

34.00

31.00

25.00

40.0

Tur Dal

34.00

34.00

33.50

33.00

32.50

4.6

Sugar

21.00

21.00

21.00

21.00

20.00

5.0

Groundnut Oil

89.00

89.00

88.00

85.00

82.00

8.5

Mustard Oil

53.00

52.00

52.00

52.00

51.00

3.9

Vanaspati

55.00

55.00

55.00

52.00

48.00

14.6

Tea (Loose)

105.50

105.50

105.50

106.00

102.50

2.9

Milk

17.00

16.00

16.00

16.00

15.00

13.3

Potato

12.00

12.00

12.00

12.00

12.00

Steady

Onion

9.00

9.50

10.00

9.00

14.00

-35.7

Other Commodities

 

 

 

 

 

Tomato

23.00

19.00

18.00

14.00

17.00

35.3

Brinjal

14.00

13.00

13.00

19.00

12.00

16.7

Gourd(Lauki)

10.00

11.00

11.00

13.00

7.00

42.9

Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

o        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

o        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta, Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil,  Vanaspati, Potato and Tea (Loose) remained at the same level as they were last week . Rise in prices was noted in Mustard Oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.9%), Milk (Re. 1.00 per kg, 6.3%), Tomato (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 21.1%) and Brinjal (Re. 1.0 per kg, 7.7% ).   Fall in prices was noted in Onion (50 paise per kg, -5.3%) and Gourd (Lauki) (Re. 1.0 per kg, -9.1%)).

As compared to the last year, price of Potato has remained steady. Increase in prices of Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 42.9%),  Gram Dal (Rs. 10.00 per kg, 40.0%), Tomato (Rs. 6.00 per kg, 35.3%), Wheat ((Rs. 2.50 per kg, 29.4%), Atta (Rs. 2.50 per kg, 26.3%), Brinjal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 16.7%), Vanaspati (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 14.6%), Milk (Rs.2.00 per kg, 13.3%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 7.00 per kg, 8.5%), %), Rice (Re. 1.00 per kg, 7.7%), Sugar (Re. 1.00 per kg, 5.0%), Tur dal (Rs. 1.50 per kg, 4.6%), Mustard oil (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 3.9%) and Tea (Loose) (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 2.9%) and decrease in price of   Onion (Rs. 5.00 per kg, -35.7%) is noticed.  

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 9: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP upto 31st August, 2006

                                                                                                (in ‘000 Tonnes)

Availability / Sale / Closing Stock

Urea

DAP

MOP

Requirement for August, 2006

2628.22

535.52

308.27

 

Availability during 01st

to 31st  August, 06

10000.60

3367.58

835.26

Sales during 01st

to 31st August, 06

9230.13

2393.02

753.66

Closing Stock as on 31.08.06

 

770.47

974.56

81.60

Requirement for September, 2006

2115.80

582.65

333.81

 

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

Kisan Credit Card:

Table – 10: Number of Kisan Credit Card issued & amount disbursed  

 

Upto 31.03.2006

 

No. of KCC cards issued

Amount in Crores (Rs.)

 

Haryana

200780

1833.29

 

NCT of Delhi

(as on 31.12.2005)

4613

31.86

Punjab

116651

1601.10

 

All-India

1603491

10375.52

State

Total procurement in marketing season 2004-05 (Oct. – Sept.)

Progressive Procurement as on

11.09.2006

In Marketing season 2005-2006

In Marketing season 2004-2005

Andhra Pradesh

39.06

48.56

38.79

Chhattisgarh

28.37

31.80

26.51

Haryana

16.62

20.49

16.62

Maharashtra

2.05

1.91

1.71

Orissa

15.90

17.27

14.91

Punjab

91.06

88.52

91.06

Tamil Nadu

6.52

8.99

6.52

Uttar Pradesh

29.71

31.51

29.71

Uttaranchal

3.16

3.37

3.16

West Bengal

9.44

16.94

9.29

All-India

246.84

281.16

242.56

Procurement :Table – 11: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 11.09.2006 (lakh tonnes)  

Table – 12:Progressive procurement of Kharif Coarsegrains as on 11.09. 06(lakh tonnes)

 

State

Jowar

Bajra

Maize

Ragi

Total

Andhra Pradesh

-

-

5.94

-

5.94

Chhattisgarh

-

-

0.09

-

0.09

Haryana

-

0.05

-

-

0.05

Karnataka

-

-

3.80

0.63

4.43

Madhya Pradesh

-

-

0.03

-

0.03

Maharashtra

0.67

-

0.30

-

0.97

Total

0.67

0.05

10.15

0.63

11.50

 Table – 13:Progressive procurement of Wheat as on 09.06.2006 (lakh tonnes)

State

Total procurement in marketing season 2005-06 (Oct. – Sept.)

Progressive Procurement as on 09.06.2006

In Marketing season 2006-2007

In Marketing season 2005-2006

Haryana

45.29

22.29

45.29

Madhya Pradesh

4.84

-

4.81

Punjab

90.10

69.46

90.10

Uttar Pradesh

5.60

0.46

5.49

All-India

147.87

92.22

147.70

 

            Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution. 

Annexure

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON  08.09.2006.

 

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                                                 Chairman

 

 

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

1.         Dr J.P. Mishra                           Dy. Commissioner (Crops)

2.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner

3.         Shri D.K. Roy                            Under Secretary (INM)

 

I.M.D.

4.         Shri B.P. Yadav                         Director

 

DEPTT. OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

5.         Dr. J.V. Singh                            P.S.O. (SCD)

P.P.Q & S

6.         Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director

I.C.A.R.

7.         Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

DEPTT. OF FERTILIZER

8.         Shri S.K. Kaushik                      Asstt. Director (FM)

 

CENTRAL GROUND WATER BOARD

9.         Shri Rana Chatterjee                  Scientist ‘D’

 

 

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

10.        Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

11.        Shri J.C. Parsad                        Dy. E.A.

N.C.F.C.

12.      Shri P.S. Meena                          Dy. E.A.

13.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                    Asstt. E.A.

 

 

Note: Representatives from Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, Central Water Commission, P.I.B., Deptt. of Food & PD, Adviser (RCR), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV) & Adviser (TPB) and RBI could not participate in the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group in future

 



1 Excess: +20% or more;  Normal:  +19% to -19%;   Deficient: -20% to -59%;  Scanty:  -60% to -99%;  No  Rain:  -100%.

2 North-west India -  Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India -  Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh,  Maharashtra and  Gujarat

 South Peninsula -   Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry,  Kerala and Lakshadweep.

  North-east India - Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.


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Last Updated On - 18 September, 2006

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