F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

                                                                        Room no. 145, Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi                                                                                           Dated, the 13th February, 2007

SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 09.02.2007.

A copy of the summary proceedings of the meeting of Crop Weather Watch Group held on 9th February 2007 , is enclosed. This issues with the approval of the Chairman.

                                (Sudha Keshari)

                                    Asst. E.A.

                                     Ph No. 7541

                                 e-mail – ncfc@nic.in  

DISTRIBUTION LIST

ADDL. SECY. (CABINET SECTT.) 

JOINT SECRETARIES/EXPERTS & OTHERS

J.S. (PP&CVO), Hort. Commissioner, J.S. (Crops & TMOP), J.S. (Credit, Coop. & INM), J.S. (Seeds, Agri., Imp & My), J.S. (Extn, NRM, RFS, WD & IT), J.S. (DM & IC), J.S. (Admn., EANHB, AC, GC, Policy & Plan) J.S. (Agrl. Marketing), J.S. (Trade & MM), Adviser (PPQ).

CROPS DIVISION / TMO & P / PIB

Addl. Commissioner (Crops), Asst. Commissioner (TMOP), Dy. Commissioner (Seeds), Press Information Officer,  DPIO

DIRECTORATE OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS

ESA, Adviser (VK), Adviser (MB), Adviser (RV), Adviser (SPS), Adviser (AKP), Adviser (TPB), Adviser (PM)

 I.C.A.R.

D.G.(ICAR)/DDG (NRM), ADG(AGRONOMY)

MINISTRY OF CONSUMER AFFAIRS, FOOD & PD

Joint Secretary (Food) / Director (Edible Oils) / Director (Sugarcane), Dy. Director (Con. Affairs)

DEPARTMENT OF FERTILISER

Director (MOVEMENT),

PLANNING COMMISSION

ADVISER (AGRI) 

MINISTRY OF PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS

Director,Marketing,

 MINISTRY OF POWER

Member Secretary, Central Electricity Authority

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

Director (IMD),

 DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (NCMRWF)

Director ( NCMRWF)

MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES

Director (Central Water Commission.), Chairman (Central Ground Water Board)

CENTRAL STATISTICAL ORGANISATION

ADG, NAD

MINISTRY OF FINANCE

Eco. Adviser

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA      

Director (DEAP)

NATIONAL INFORMATICS CENTRE

   Tech. Director

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CO-OPERATION

P.P.S. TO SECY (A&C/ PPS to Addl. Secy. (AS)/   PPS  to  Addl. Secy. (PPM)/   PPS

       to Addl. Secy. (KS)/ P.P.S. TO Addl. Secy. (SMD)/ PS to Agriculture Commissioner/PS to Chairman, CACP

 F.NO. 3-1/2006-NCFC – E&S

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

(NATIONAL CROP FORECASTING CENTRE)

MINUTES OF THE MEETING OF THE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD ON 09.02.2007

 The meeting of the Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) was held on 09.02.2007 under the Chairmanship of Dr. A.K. Neog, E.S.A., DES.  The Agenda included discussion on weather situation, progress in crop sowing, availability of inputs, pest situation, price and procurement position.

Salient aspects of discussions / presentations in the meeting

Rainfall

Rainfall during the week ending on  07^th February, 2007

Rainfall

·        Scattered to Isolated rain / snowfall  occurred over Western Himalayan Region during 4^th – 7^th February  , 07.   Isolated rain / thundershowers occurred over Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana on 6^th – 7^th February  and over Uttar Pradesh on 7^th February  , 07.

·        Scattered to isolated rain / thundershowers occurred  over Northeastern States and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim throughout the week.

·        Isolated rain / thundershowers also occurred over Orissa on 3^rd  February, 07 and 5^th – 7^th February, 07 and over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand on 5^th February, 07.

·        Mainly dry weather prevailed over the remaining parts of the country.

Fog

·        Isolated morning fog conditions prevailed over Indo-Gangetic plains throughout the week except on 3^rd February, 07 when the morning fog conditions occurred at many places over the region.   Fog also occurred at many places over Orissa and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim during morning hours on 3^rd February, 07.

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the week (01^st   -   07^th February, 07 ) was below normal by 45% (Actual 2.8 mm  Normal 5.1 mm).

Distribution of Rainfall[1]:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 04 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 14 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 18 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

 Cumulative seasonal rainfall (1^st  January  to  07^th February, 2007 )

·        All India “area weighted” rainfall for the Winter season was below normal by 83% (Actual 4.4 mm  Normal 26.0 mm).

          Distribution of Rainfall:

Ø        Excess rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Normal rainfall in 01 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Deficient rainfall in 03 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        Scanty rainfall in 24 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Ø        No rain in 07 out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions of the country.

Table-1: Cumulative Rainfall  from 1^st January to  07^th February, 07  in four regions of the country [2]

              Source: IMD

        Temperature:

Minimum Temperature

·        The night temperature was above normal by 2^oC - 5^oC  over the plains of Northwest India , Northeastern States and East India during many days of the week.

·        It was above normal by 2^oC- 4^oC during the week over Central India .

·        It was above normal by 5^oC - 7^oC over Gujarat and Rajasthan.

Weather Outlook / Forecast for the period (09^th -   16^th February, 2007), by IMD and NCMRWF

Outlook for the Week Ending on 14^th February, 2007

·        A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to cause scattered precipitation over Northwest and East India for 2-3 days commencing from 9^th February, 07.

·        Rise in night temperature over plains of Northwest India during 9^th – 12^th February, 07 and fall thereafter.

·        Dense fog conditions are likely over plains of Northwest India towards end of the week.

North & North-West India (J&K, HP, Uttaranchal, Punjab , Haryana, Delhi , West UP)

·        Widespread snowfall/rain is expected during 9^th – 11^th February, 07.   Fairy widespread to widespread rainfall are likely over Punjab , Haryana, Delhi and West UP are during 9^th – 11^th February, 07. 

·        Night temperature is likely to fall after 2 days.

East India and NE India (East UP, Bihar , Jharkhand, West Bengal , Orissa , NE States)

·         Fairly widespread  rainfall / thundershowers is expected over East UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and NE States during 10^th  – 12^th Feb, 07.   Scattered rainfall is also expected over Orissa during 11^th – 12^th February, 07.

·         Fog may develop after 12^th February, 07 over East UP and Bihar .

Central India (MP, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha)

·        Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over MP and Chhattisgarh and isolated shower over Vidarbha  during 10^th  -  11^th Feb, 07.

South India (Tamil Nadu, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep )

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are likely over the region except isolated showers over South Tamil Nadu during 10^th – 11^th February, 07.

West India ( Maharashtra , Other than Vidarbha, Gujarat , Rajasthan)

·        Fairly widespread rainfall / thundershowers over Rajasthan and scattered rain / thundershowers over Gujarat are likely during 10^th – 11^th February, 07.

·        Mainly dry weather conditions are expected over the  region.

Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 08.02.2007)

·        The Central Water Commission monitors the live storage of 76 important/major reservoirs, having Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 133.02 billion cubic meters (BCM), which is about 63% of total reservoir capacity in the country. 

·        Water stock in 76 major reservoirs decreased to 72.82  BCM from 75.71 BCM reported last week. The current storage is less than the last year’s position by 0.44 BCM and more than the average of last 10 year’s storage by 14.11 BCM.

Table – 3: For 76 major reservoirs of the country

                        Source: CWC

·        There were 64 reservoirs having storage more than 80%, 7 reservoirs having storage between  50% to 80% and 4  reservoirs having storage between 30% to 50% of Normal Storage.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

·        There was one reservoir namely Gumti (TRP) having live storage under 30% of normal storage and no reservoir having negative live storage.

Source: CWC

Fertilizer Position:

Table – 6: Requirement, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers Urea, DAP and MOP during    January, 2007

(in ‘000 Tonnes)

                          Source: Fertilizer Division

Pest & Diseases:

Chemical Pesticides / Bio-pesticides Position:

• No report of shortage / short supply of either chemical pesticides or bio-pesticides has been received from any State / UT.

• The incidence of pest & diseases remained below Economic Threshold   Level (ETL) generally for most of the crops

Price Situation of Agricultural Commodities as submitted by the Department of Consumer Affairs

Inflation

The all-commodity inflation rate based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) on a point to point basis for the week ending 27.01.2007 increased by 0.47 percentage points to 6.58% from the previous week’s level of 6.11%.  The inflation rate for the foodgrains rose by 0.09% and agriculture commodities  rose by 0.65% over the week on account of increase in WPI of Jowar by (0.87%), Bajra by (0.09%), Ragi by (1.79%), Arhar by (1.66%), Moong by (1.55%), Masur by (0.20%) and Urad by (0.42%).  The decline in WPI was observed for Maize (0.04%), Barley  (0.09%), Gram (2.57%) and Sugar (0.52%).  The inflation rate was 4.04% during the corresponding period last year.

Table – 5: Retail prices of Essential Agricultural Commodities at Delhi

                     (Rs. Per Kg.)

Retail Prices: Prices quoted are of the fair average quality, consumed by masses

·        Representative prices of five markets of Delhi are Yusuf Sarai, Janak Puri, Paharganj, Kotla Mubarakpur and Shahdara.

·        Source : Department of food and Civil Supplies, Delhi

During the week, prices of some of the essential agricultural commodities like Rice, Wheat, Atta,   Gram dal, Tur dal, Sugar, Groundnut oil, Vanaspati, Tea (Loose), Milk, Brinjal and Gourd (Lauki) remained at the same level as they were last week.  Rise in prices was noted in Onion (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 25.0%)   Fall in price was noted in  Mustard oil (Re. 1.00 per kg, 1.8%), Potato ( 50 paise per kg, 7.7%) and Tomato (Rs. 3.00 per kg, 21.4%).

 As compared to the last year increase in prices was noted in  Rice (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 15.4%), Wheat (Re. 1.00 per kg, 9.1%), Atta (Re. 1.00 per kg, 8.3%),Gram Dal (Rs. 9.00 per kg, 33.3%), Tur dal (Rs. 2.00 per kg, 5.9%), Mustard Oil (Rs. 6.00 per ltr., 12.0%), Groundnut oil (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 10.6%), Vanaspati (Rs. 9.00 per lt, 19.1%), Milk (Rs. 2.00 per lt, 12.5%), Tea (Loose) (Rs. 4.00 per kg, 3.8%), Tomato (Rs.4.00 per kg, 57.1%), Brinjal (Re. 1.00 per kg, 10.0%)  and  Onion (Rs. 13.00 per kg, 185.7%) and decrease in prices of Sugar (Rs. 3.00 per kg, -13.6), Potato (Re. 1.00 per kg, -14.3), and Gourd (Lauki) (Rs. 3.00 per kg, -17.6%) was observed.  

Procurement :

Table – 8: Progressive procurement of Rice as on 09.02.2007 (lakh tonnes)

Source: Department of Food & Public Distribution.

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS WHO ATTENDED THE MEETING OF CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP  HELD ON  09.02.2007.

Dr. A.K. Neog                                   E.S.A.                                         Chairman

DTE. OF ECO. & STAT.

1.         Shri Vijay Kumar                        Adviser

2.         Shri S.P. Sharma                       Adviser

3.         Shri  T.P. Biswas                       Adviser

4.         Smt. Padmaja  Mehta                Adviser

               DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & COOPERATION

5.         Dr. S.S. Tomar                          Asstt. Commissioner (TMOP)

6.         Shri Rakesh Agrawal                  Asstt. Director

7.         Shri S. Selvaraj                          DC (Seeds)

I.M.D.

8.         Dr. B.P. Yadav                           Director

DEPTT. OF EARTH & SCIENCE

9.         Shri Ashok Kumar                      Director

10.        Shri J.V. Singh                          Scientist

C.W.C.

11.        Shri S.K. Sinha                          A.D.

P.P.Q & S

12.        Shri V.K. Yadava                       Jt. Director (IPM)

I.C.A.R.

13.        Dr. A.K. Gogoi                           ADG (Agro)

N.C.F.C.

17.      Shri P.S. Meena                         Addl. E.A.

18.      Smt. Sudha Keshari                  Asstt. E.A.

Note: Representatives from Central Ground Water Board, Deptt. of Fertilizer, Deptt. of Consumer Affairs, R.B.I., Deptt. of Food & PD and P.I.B. did not attend the meeting.   It is requested that they should regularly attend meetings of the group.